Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 29

Date: 28 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Alexandra Stadium (Crewe)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Crewe Alexandra		AFC Wimbledon

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.8	2.88	Watch
	2.65	2.9	2.85
	2.7	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.75	2.96	2.94
	2.71	2.84	2.9	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.9
	2.62	2.95	2.86	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.64)	2.89 ↓ (3.16)	2.89 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
34.8%

Draw
32.6%

AFC Wimbledon
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

29.6%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

31.1%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Crewe Alexandra - AFC Wimbledon Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Crewe will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Wimbledon will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Marschall F. (G) 3. Knight-Lebel J. 26. O'Riordan C. 5. Demetriou M. (C) 2. Cooney R. 11. Tabiner J. 25. Conway M. 4. Williams Z. 17. Holicek M. 9. Bogle O. 10. Tracey S.	1. Goodman O. (G) 33. Ogundere I. 31. Lewis J. 6. Johnson R. 11. Neufville J. 4. Reeves J. (C) 12. Smith A. 3. Furlong J. 29. Sasu A. 18. Browne M. 14. Stevens M.
Substitutes
1. Booth T. (G) 24. Finney C. 15. Hemmings K. 7. Long Ch. 19. Lunt O. 23. Powell J. 6. Sanders M. H.	9. Bugiel O. 21. Hippolyte M. 10. Kelly J. 5. O'Toole J. J. 39. Pigott J. 7. Tilley J. 22. Ward L. (G)
Coaches
Bell L.	Jackson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Knight-Lebel J. ⚽, Tabiner J. (A),
45', 1 - 1, Neufville J. ⚽, Stevens M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Bogle O. ↓, Hemmings K. ↑,
63', Tabiner J. ↓, Long Ch. ↑,
74', Holicek M. 🟨,
75', Stevens M. ↓, Bugiel O. ↑,
75', Browne M. ↓, Kelly J. ↑,
76', Furlong J. ↓, Tilley J. ↑,
81', Conway M. ↓, Sanders M. H. ↑,
84', Sasu A. ↓, Hippolyte M. ↑,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crewe won 1.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Crewe won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:10 (average 1.3:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Crewe won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Crewe Alexandra - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.43%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
25.01.25	Crewe Alexandra - Accrington Stanley	0:1 ✺
18.01.25	Morecambe - Crewe Alexandra	0:1 ✺
11.01.25	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
05.01.25	Crewe Alexandra - Bromley	4:1 ✺
01.01.25	Crewe Alexandra - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWTWW
- AFC Wimbledon
English League Two
25.01.25	Milton Keynes Dons - AFC Wimbledon	0:0 ✺
18.01.25	AFC Wimbledon - Tranmere Rovers	2:0 ✺
02.01.25	Newport County - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
30.12.24	AFC Wimbledon - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	AFC Wimbledon - Swindon Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
23.03.24	Crewe Alexandra - AFC Wimbledon	1:1
16.09.23	AFC Wimbledon - Crewe Alexandra	2:2
07.01.23	Crewe Alexandra - AFC Wimbledon	0:0
25.10.22	AFC Wimbledon - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
English League One
15.04.22	Crewe Alexandra - AFC Wimbledon	3:1
23.11.21	AFC Wimbledon - Crewe Alexandra	3:2
23.01.21	Crewe Alexandra - AFC Wimbledon	1:1

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