Match Info

Date: 4 December 2021, Saturday


	Crotone		SPAL

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.25	3.1	Watch
	2.35	3.2	3
	2.25	3.15	3.25	Watch
	2.2	3.15	3.2
	2.28	3.43	3.36
	2.3	3.1	3.25
	2.26	3.28	3.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.39)	3.22 ↓ (3.27)	3.21 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crotone
41.5%

Draw
29.2%

SPAL
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

29.3%

30.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

19.7%

45.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crotone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

SPAL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crotone than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crotone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SPAL than the current prediction. (+16.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that SPAL could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Crotone - SPAL Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Crotone has the most likely position - 19 (19.01%), has project points - 35, has currently - 8, has a good chance of relegated (68%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

SPAL has the most likely position - 15 (11.41%), has project points - 48, has currently - 17, has a small chance of relegated (14%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (16%), has a very small chance of promoted (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Crotone has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

SPAL is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Crotone could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Crotone will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Crotone won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Crotone won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Crotone
Italian Serie B
29.11.21	Ternana - Crotone	1:0 ✺
26.11.21	Crotone - Vicenza Virtus	0:1 ✺
20.11.21	Perugia - Crotone	2:0 ✺
07.11.21	Crotone - Monza	1:1 ✺
01.11.21	Frosinone - Crotone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLTL
- SPAL 2013
Italian Serie B
30.11.21	SPAL - Lecce	1:3 ✺
27.11.21	Nuova Cosenza - SPAL	0:1 ✺
20.11.21	SPAL - Alessandria	2:3 ✺
06.11.21	Cremonese - SPAL	1:1 ✺
01.11.21	SPAL - Perugia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
28.10.20	Crotone - SPAL	1:2 penalties
Italian Serie A
25.02.18	Crotone - SPAL	2:3
01.10.17	SPAL - Crotone	1:1

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