Match Info

Date: 18 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)


	Cruzeiro		Guarani

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.6	4.75
	1.67	3.45	5
	1.7	3.5	4.6
	1.73	3.62	5.47
	1.7	3.4	5
	1.65	3.64	5.3
	1.71	3.55	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.5)	3.54 ↓ (3.7)	4.97 ↓ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
55%

Draw
26.3%

Guarani
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.8%

24.6%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

27.6%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cruzeiro's form might have worsened.

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cruzeiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guarani, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	23.1%	26.9%

Cruzeiro - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 13 - 50%). Guarani will win (votes: 7 - 26.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cruzeiro: 30.8% – 69.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 13).

Cruzeiro is Confirmed as champions, Qualified for Serie A

Recent matches Cruzeiro is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Guarani is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Guarani could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Cruzeiro is a favorite.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Chay (Injury) Gabriel Brazao (Knee Injury) Joao Paulo (Injury) Neto Moura (Injury) Oliveira (Yellow Cards) Stenio (Injury)

There will not play in Guarani: Nicolas Careca (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Cruzeiro won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Cruzeiro won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie B
14.10.22	Vila Nova - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
09.10.22	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	3:1 ✺
05.10.22	Cruzeiro - Ituano	1:1 ✺
28.09.22	Ponte Preta - Cruzeiro	1:4 ✺
21.09.22	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTWW
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie B
11.10.22	Guarani - CRB Maceio	1:0 ✺
08.10.22	Ituano - Guarani	2:1 ✺
03.10.22	Guarani - Londrina	1:0 ✺
30.09.22	CS Alagoano - Guarani	1:2 ✺
20.09.22	Guarani - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
09.07.22	Guarani - Cruzeiro	1:0
29.09.21	Guarani - Cruzeiro	1:1
30.06.21	Cruzeiro - Guarani	3:3

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