Match Info

Premier League - Round 30

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Selhurst Park (London)

Referee: Bramall T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Crystal Palace		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.75
	2.7	3.2	2.78
	2.79	3.28	2.75
	2.77	3.29	2.73	Watch
	2.63	3	2.7
	2.6	3.29	2.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.25)	3.22 ↓ (3.44)	2.77 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crystal Palace
35.6%

Draw
29.8%

Leeds United
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

27.9%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

27.7%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crystal Palace has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Crystal Palace's form might have worsened.

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leeds United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crystal Palace than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Crystal Palace, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Leeds United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.1%	31.4%	21.6%

Crystal Palace - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Crystal Palace will win (votes: 22 - 45.8%). Leeds will win (votes: 11 - 22.9%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crystal Palace: 31.7% – 59.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Crystal Palace (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Crystal Palace (1.41) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -0.5 - Crystal Palace (2.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Crystal Palace (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Crystal Palace (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Leeds (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Benitez W. (G) 26. Richards C. 5. Lacroix M. 23. Canvot J. 11. Johnson B. 19. Hughes W. (C) 8. Lerma J. 3. Mitchell T. 7. Sarr I. 29. Guessand E. 22. Larsen J. S.	26. Darlow K. (G) 6. Rodon J. 15. Bijol J. 5. Struijk P. 24. Justin J. 18. Stach A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 3. Gudmundsson G. 11. Aaronson B. 14. Nmecha L. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.
Substitutes
17. Clyne N. 55. Devenny J. 18. Kamada D. 14. Mateta J. 31. Matthews R. (G) 10. Pino Y. 34. Riad C. 24. Sosa B. 20. Wharton A.	2. Bogle J. 23. Bornauw S. 29. Gnonto W. 44. Gruev I. 7. James D. 8. Longstaff S. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Glasner O.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Gudmundsson G. 🟨,
31', Bijol J. 🟨,
44', Hughes W. 🟨,
45', Calvert-Lewin D. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', Glasner O. 🟨,
45+3', Farke D. 🟨,
45+5', Gudmundsson G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nmecha L. ↓, Gruev I. ↑,
46', Aaronson B. ↓, Bogle J. ↑,
55', Johnson B. 🟨,
60', Hughes W. ↓, Wharton A. ↑,
60', Larsen J. S. ↓, Mateta J. ↑,
80', Johnson B. ↓, Pino Y. ↑,
80', Canvot J. ↓, Kamada D. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crystal Palace won 2.

Crystal Palace is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leeds has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Crystal Palace may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Crystal Palace: Nketiah E. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Crystal Palace: Munoz D. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Calvert-Lewin D. (Knee Injury) Okafor N. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Crystal Palace won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Crystal Palace won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Leeds: 0.58% Crystal Palace: 0.13%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7:3	4	9
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6:11	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crystal Palace
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Crystal Palace - AEK Larnaca	0:0 ✺
English Premier League
05.03.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Crystal Palace	1:3 ✺
01.03.26	Manchester United - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Crystal Palace - Zrinjski Mostar	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
22.02.26	Crystal Palace - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWLWW
- Leeds United
English FA Cup
08.03.26	Leeds United - Norwich City	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
03.03.26	Leeds United - Sunderland	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Leeds United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
15.02.26	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
20.12.25	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	4:1
09.04.23	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	1:5
09.10.22	Crystal Palace - Leeds United	2:1
Club Friendly
22.07.22	Crystal Palace - Leeds United	1:1
English Premier League
25.04.22	Crystal Palace - Leeds United	0:0
30.11.21	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	1:0
08.02.21	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	2:0

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