Match Info

FA Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: England D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Leeds United		Norwich City

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.33	5.25
	1.49	4.6	6.25
	1.58	4.25	5.4
	1.59	4.31	5.51
	1.63	4.26	5.03	Watch
	1.53	4	5
	1.59	4.45	5.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.46)	4.31 ↓ (4.43)	5.44 ↓ (6.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
60.6%

Draw
22%

Norwich City
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

21.2%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.5%

23.2%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Norwich City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leeds United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norwich City than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Leeds United - Norwich City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Norwich (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Norwich (2.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leeds United will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Norwich (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Perri (G) 23. Bornauw S. 15. Bijol J. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 3. Gudmundsson G. 22. Tanaka A. 8. Longstaff S. 7. James D. 10. Piroe J. 29. Gnonto W. 14. Nmecha L.	32. Grimshaw D. (G) 35. Fisher K. 15. McConville R. 33. Cordoba J. 14. Chrisene B. 26. Field S. 23. McLean K. (C) 8. Gibbs L. 25. Maghoma P. 21. Ahmed A. 30. Kvistgaarden M.
Substitutes
11. Aaronson B. 2. Bogle J. 40. Buonanotte F. 25. Byram S. 26. Darlow K. (G) 44. Gruev I. 24. Justin J. 18. Stach A. 5. Struijk P.	6. Darling H. 18. Forson A. 1. Kovacevic V. (G) 5. Medic J. 46. Mundle Smith E. 20. Slimane A. 42. Springett T. 3. Stacey J. 16. Wright J.
Coaches
Farke D.	Clement P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
25', Ahmed A. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Longstaff S. ⚽, Gudmundsson G. (A),
39', Longstaff S. 🟨,
41', Cordoba J. 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Gudmundsson G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Grimshaw D. ↓, Kovacevic V. ↑,
46', Bornauw S. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
59', Tanaka A. 🟨,
62', Gibbs L. ↓, Stacey J. ↑,
63', Maghoma P. ↓, Slimane A. ↑,
63', Kvistgaarden M. ↓, Mundle Smith E. ↑,
70', Longstaff S. ↓, Struijk P. ↑,
70', James D. ↓, Bogle J. ↑,
70', Tanaka A. ↓, Stach A. ↑,
82', Ahmed A. ↓, Forson A. ↑,
85', 3 - 0, Piroe J. ⚽, Nmecha L. (A),
87', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Byram S. ↑,
90+3', Fisher K. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 3.

In recent matches, Leeds has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Norwich is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Leeds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leeds is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Leeds: Okafor N. (Injury)

There will not play in Norwich: Amass H. (Injury) Crnac A. (Knee Injury) Diallo P. A. (Injury) Duffy S. (Hamstring Injury) Forsyth G. (Knee Injury) Jurasek M. (Foot Injury) Makama J. (Foot Injury) Mattsson P. (Ankle Injury) Schlupp J. (Hamstring Injury) Schwartau O. (Hamstring Injury) Topic M. (Knee Injury) Toure M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Norwich: Forson A. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:20. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.9:1.2).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Leeds: 1.6% Norwich: 0.51%

Last Results with these Odds

Leeds United - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 64.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
03.03.26	Leeds United - Sunderland	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Leeds United - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
15.02.26	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LLTWT
- Norwich City
English League Championship
28.02.26	Leicester City - Norwich City	0:2 ✺
25.02.26	Norwich City - Sheffield Wednesday	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Norwich City - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Norwich City - West Bromwich Albion	3:1 ✺
English League Championship
10.02.26	Oxford United - Norwich City	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
22.01.25	Leeds United - Norwich City	2:0
01.10.24	Norwich City - Leeds United	1:1
16.05.24	Leeds United - Norwich City	4:0
12.05.24	Norwich City - Leeds United	0:0
24.01.24	Leeds United - Norwich City	1:0
21.10.23	Norwich City - Leeds United	2:3
English Premier League
13.03.22	Leeds United - Norwich City	2:1

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