Match Info

Premier League - Round 27

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport OTT 4, SuperSport Premier League
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Denmark	Viaplay
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Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Sport 24


	Aston Villa		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.6	4.33
	1.8	3.7	4.33
	1.88	3.7	4.25
	1.86	3.75	4.5
	1.86	3.83	4.32	Watch
	1.83	3.6	3.9
	1.83	3.68	4.71	Watch
	1.81	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.79)	3.68 ↓ (3.79)	4.36 ↓ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
52.1%

Draw
26%

Leeds United
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

25.3%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

25%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	12.7%	8.5%

Aston Villa - Leeds United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Leeds (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Aston Villa (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (56 of 71 users predict this - 78.87%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.37% – 88.37%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Aston Villa will win (19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 20 - 83.3%). Leeds (votes: 1 - 4.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. (C) 5. Mings T. 22. Maatsen I. 24. Onana A. 21. Douglas Luiz 31. Bailey L. 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	26. Darlow K. (G) 24. Justin J. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 5. Struijk P. 6. Rodon J. 3. Gudmundsson G. 2. Bogle J. 44. Gruev I. 18. Stach A. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D.
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 6. Barkley R. 26. Bogarde L. 12. Digne L. 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 19. Sancho J. 14. Torres P. 64. Wright J. (G)	15. Bijol J. 23. Bornauw S. 29. Gnonto W. 7. James D. 8. Longstaff S. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Emery U.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Stach A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Bijol J. ↑,
61', Bailey L. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
61', Onana A. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
62', Bijol J. 🟨,
69', Darlow K. 🟨,
73', Buendia E. 🟨,
73', Aaronson B. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
75', Buendia E. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
79', Bogle J. 🟨,
83', Stach A. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
87', Douglas Luiz ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
87', Cash M. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Abraham T. ⚽,
90+2', Gruev I. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Leeds may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of home games.

In this match, Aston Villa is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Bizot M. (Red Card) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) McGinn J. (Knee Injury) Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: Okafor N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Alysson (Knock) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.4:1.6).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Aston Villa: 0.68% Leeds: 0.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Leeds	6	2	3	1	8:5	3	9
14	Aston Villa	6	1	2	3	6:11	-5	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Aston Villa - Brentford	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Aston Villa - Red Bull Salzburg	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTLW
- Leeds United
English FA Cup
15.02.26	Birmingham City - Leeds United	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League
10.02.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	2:2 ✺
06.02.26	Leeds United - Nottingham Forest	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Leeds United - Arsenal	0:4 ✺
26.01.26	Everton - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
23.11.25	Leeds United - Aston Villa	1:2
13.01.23	Aston Villa - Leeds United	2:1
02.10.22	Leeds United - Aston Villa	0:0
Club Friendly
17.07.22	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:0
English Premier League
10.03.22	Leeds United - Aston Villa	0:3
09.02.22	Aston Villa - Leeds United	3:3
27.02.21	Leeds United - Aston Villa	0:1

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