Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 16

Date: 5 September 2024, Thursday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Fernandes de Lima F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Portugal	Canal 11
World	Fanatiz


	Cuiabá		Juventude

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	4	Watch
	1.93	3.4	4.1
	1.95	3.4	4
	2	3.47	4.15
	2	3.4	4.17	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.9
	1.97	3.4	4.02	Watch
	1.95	3.4	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.19)	3.4 ↑ (3.33)	4.04 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
48.5%

Draw
28%

Juventude
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

28.5%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.2%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cuiabá's performance.

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.2%	9.5%	14.3%

Cuiabá - Juventude Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). Juventude will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cuiabá: 58% – 94.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 2. Matheus Alexandre 4. Marllon (C) 33. Alan Empereur 23. Ramon 30. Lucas Mineiro 18. Lucas Fernandes 10. Max Alves 22. Derik Lacerda 25. Clayson 7. Jonathan Cafu	1. Gabriel (G) 2. Joao Lucas 4. Danilo Boza 3. Ze Marcos 28. Alan Ruschel (C) 96. Ronaldo 16. Jadson 10. Nene 21. Lucas Barbosa 7. Erick Farias 79. Carrillo R.
Substitutes
34. Bruno Alves 27. Denilson Alves 11. Eliel 5. Filipe Augusto 44. Gabriel 84. Gabryel Freitas 8. Guilherme Madruga 19. Gustavo Sauer 63. Juan Tavares 21. Railan 12. Rhyan (G) 59. Tarcisio L. D. M.	23. Abner 88. Davi Goes 13. Diego Goncalves 30. Dudu Vieira 17. Edson Carioca 12. Gabriel Inocencio 9. Gilberto 20. Jean Carlos 5. Luis Oyama 11. Marcelinho 77. Mateus Claus (G) 70. Yan Souto
Coaches
Franco B.	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Erick Farias ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
57', Alan Empereur 🟨,
59', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Filipe Augusto ↑,
61', Lucas Barbosa 🟨,
69', Lucas Barbosa ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
69', Nene ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
72', Clayson ↓, Eliel ↑,
72', Max Alves ↓, Denilson Alves ↑,
72', Jonathan Cafu ↓, Railan ↑,
84', Lucas Fernandes 🟨,
85', Carrillo R. ↓, Edson Carioca ↑,
87', Lucas Fernandes ↓, Gustavo Sauer ↑,
90+1', Denilson Alves 🟨,
90+5', Alan Ruschel ↓, Gabriel Inocencio ↑,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 4.

Cuiabá is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Juventude is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Juventude could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Cuiabá is a favorite.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Matheus Alexandre (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.24	Cuiabá - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
24.08.24	Palmeiras - Cuiabá	5:0 ✺
17.08.24	Atlético Mineiro - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
10.08.24	Cuiabá - Grêmio	1:3 ✺
03.08.24	Vitória Salvador - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLTLL
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Juventude - Internacional RS	1:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.08.24	Juventude - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.08.24	Atlético Goianiense - Juventude	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa FGF
22.08.24	Juventude - Gaúcho	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.08.24	Athletico Paranaense - Juventude	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
13.08.22	Cuiabá - Juventude	1:0
24.04.22	Juventude - Cuiabá	0:1
11.09.21	Juventude - Cuiabá	1:2
29.05.21	Cuiabá - Juventude	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
05.01.21	Cuiabá - Juventude	1:0
06.10.20	Juventude - Cuiabá	1:1

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