Match Info

ECUADOR: Liga Pro - First stage - Round 9

Date: 17 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Contreras O. (Ecu)


	Cumbayá		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.9	2.88	Watch
	2.45	2.95	2.65	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.71	3	3.01
	2.72	2.86	3.01
	2.45	3.1	2.7
	2.55	3.18	2.76	Watch
	2.55	3.05	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.52)	3.02 ↓ (3.08)	2.82 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cumbayá
36.1%

Draw
30.9%

Libertad Loja
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

30%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

29.4%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cumbayá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Cumbayá - Libertad Loja Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cumbayá will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. San Juan F. (G) 16. Gustavino L. 14. Suarez D. 12. Pluas W. 60. Ortiz D. 5. Altuna A. 22. Serpa T. 8. Valencia M. 10. Tapia R. (C) 19. Diaz M. 9. Magoia A.	1. Bolado J. (G) 32. Bolanos D. 6. Caicedo B. 27. Alvacete J. 15. Hernandez J. 8. Avila F. 26. Molina N. 5. Larrea P. (C) 22. Donsanti T. 11. Disanto L. 10. Uchuari J.
Substitutes
25. Caicedo Piyajo L. D. 33. Cardenas Salazar O. B. (G) 2. Delgado F. 20. Gruezo M. 3. Hurtado K. 29. Rivera K. 30. Vernaza Mina J. A. 54. Vides B.	13. Angulo L. 9. Avila D. 29. Basan L. 90. Bores E. (G) 18. Borja Suarez R. A. 16. Caicedo J. 33. Enciso C. 70. Huilca J. 7. Zambrano I.
Coaches
Araujo N.	Cumbicus G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Bolanos D. 🟨,
18', Gustavino L. 🟨,
31', Caicedo B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Valencia M. ↓, Rivera K. ↑,
59', Molina N. ↓, Zambrano I. ↑,
67', Gustavino L. ↓, Hurtado K. ↑,
67', Magoia A. ↓, Vernaza Mina J. A. ↑,
73', Donsanti T. ↓, Basan L. ↑,
73', Larrea P. ↓, Avila D. ↑,
83', Cumbicus G. 🟨,
84', Zambrano I. 🟨,
84', Bores E. 🟨,
89', Disanto L. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
90', Altuna A. ↓, Caicedo Piyajo L. D. ↑,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 16).

Recent matches Cumbayá is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Libertad is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Libertad could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Cumbayá won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Cumbayá won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.04.24	Emelec - Cumbayá	2:0 ✺
06.04.24	SD Aucas - Cumbayá	3:0 ✺
30.03.24	Cumbayá - El Nacional	1:0 ✺
23.03.24	Imbabura - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
19.03.24	Cumbayá - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 LLWTW
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.04.24	Libertad Loja - Barcelona Guayaquil	0:3 ✺
07.04.24	Independiente del Valle - Libertad Loja	3:0 ✺
30.03.24	Libertad Loja - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
25.03.24	Delfín - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
15.03.24	Deportivo Macará - Libertad Loja	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.12.23	Libertad Loja - Cumbayá	3:1
17.06.23	Cumbayá - Libertad Loja	2:1

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