Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+


	Danubio		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.1	3.75	Watch
	2.00	3.20	3.50
	1.98	3.15	3.6
	2.19	3.12	3.85
	2.03	3.26	3.8	Watch
	2.15	3	3.8
	1.99	3.23	3.9	Watch
	2.01	3.25	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.33)	3.16 ↑ (3.03)	3.73 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
45.7%

Draw
29.4%

Cerro Largo
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

30.8%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

29.8%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Danubio's performance.

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Danubio - Cerro Largo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (G) 4. Rinaldi M. 19. Brasil M. 31. Cavanagh T. 6. Sosa L. (C) 16. Rossi I. 38. Trasante J. 10. Peralta M. 8. Rodriguez S. 21. Azambuja B. 77. Tomatis B.	12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 3. Piegas A. 28. Ramos N. 20. Franca S. 29. Lozano B. 15. Assis S. (C) 5. Marcel S. 37. Segovia A. 10. Pandiani A. 9. Piriz L.
Substitutes
18. Balatti F. 7. Cabrera E. 30. Fernandez S. 20. Ferreira M. 15. Figueroa E. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 3. Rodriguez G. 80. Tizon C.	13. Barone B. 11. Brun S. 18. Daguerre D. 26. de Leon E. 6. Ergas R. 8. Garcia M. 24. Gonzalez L. (G) 25. Jourdan E. 19. Prado A. 7. Viera G.
Coaches
Rocco L.	Nunez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
1', Cavanagh T. 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Peralta M. ⚽,
26', Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Peralta M. (Penalty Awarded),
30', Marcel S. 🟨,
42', 2 - 1, Segovia A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cavanagh T. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
46', Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
59', Piriz L. ↓, Daguerre D. ↑,
60', Daguerre D. 🟨,
61', Azambuja B. ↓, Fernandez S. ↑,
61', Rossi I. ↓, Millan J. ↑,
61', Piegas A. 🟨,
68', Rodriguez S. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
70', Millan J. 🟨,
71', Ramos N. ↓, Ergas R. ↑,
71', Segovia A. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
83', Marcel S. ↓, Barone B. ↑,
90+1', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
90+5', Peralta M. 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 15th and 13th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 0.

Recent results have been tough for Danubio (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Cerro Largo has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Cerro Largo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Cerro Largo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Danubio is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Danubio has recorded 3 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:22 (averaging 0.7:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Danubio against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 9:8 goals (averaging 1:0.9 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.09.26	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
24.09.26	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Danubio - Montevideo Wanderers	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Danubio	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Danubio - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTTL
- Cerro Largo
Uruguay Copa
30.09.26	Cerro Largo - Rentistas	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.09.26	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Cerro Largo - Central Español	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.26	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:0
18.08.25	Cerro Largo - Danubio	1:0
Copa Sudamericana
06.03.25	Cerro Largo - Danubio	3:2 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.02.25	Danubio - Cerro Largo	0:0
20.10.24	Cerro Largo - Danubio	0:0
09.06.24	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:2
20.04.24	Danubio - Cerro Largo	1:1

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