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Current Win Probability
Darmstadt 74%
Draw 15.7%
Erzgebirge Aue 10.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
60.9%
22.2%
16.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
60.2%
21.9%
17.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Darmstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Darmstadt's performance.
Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Erzgebirge Aue might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darmstadt than the current prediction. (-13.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Darmstadt that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+6.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Erzgebirge Aue could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
78.7%
12.8%
8.5%
Darmstadt - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions
Users Predictions:
Darmstadt will win
(37 of 47 users predict this - 78.72%). Confidence interval (95%): 67.02% โ 90.42%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Preview
This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Promotion) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga).
Darmstadt has the most likely position - 3 (39.29%), has project points - 59, has currently - 54, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of promoted (44%), has a small chance of win league (9%).
Aue has the most likely position - 17 (73.36%), has project points - 25, has currently - 23, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of promoted.
This event has small quality29, importance51, match rating40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Darmstadt won 0.
Recent matches Darmstadt is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Aue is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
In this match Darmstadt is the unquestionable favorite.
Last 11 head-to-head matches Darmstadt won 8 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-9.
Including matches at home between the teams Darmstadt won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-1.
Watch
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