Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 9

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday

Location: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor (Darmstadt)

Referee: Gansloweit T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Darmstadt		St. Pauli

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.5	2.25	Watch
	3.10	3.40	2.30
	2.85	3.35	2.25	Watch
	3.12	3.5	2.39
	3.04	3.5	2.29	Watch
	3.05	3.45	2.35
	2.89	3.61	2.33	Watch
	2.95	3.5	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.91)	3.48 ↓ (3.67)	2.31 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Darmstadt
31.8%

Draw
27.2%

St. Pauli
41%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.1%

25.4%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

24.9%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Darmstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darmstadt than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Darmstadt - St. Pauli Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Darmstadt will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for St. Pauli: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Darmstadt (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - St. Pauli (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.80) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Darmstadt (votes: 1 - 50%). St. Pauli (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schuhen M. (C) 25. Mikelbrencis W. 6. Pfeiffer P. 49. Luhrs Y. 18. Petretta R. 5. Richter M. 17. Klefisch K. 16. Akiyama H. 7. Weisshaupt N. 19. Lakenmacher F. 36. Smit M.	1. Voll B. (G) 4. Nemeth D. (C) 8. Smith E. 21. Ritzka L. 11. Pyrka A. 20. Rasmussen M. 16. Fujita J. 23. Oppie L. 24. Metcalfe C. 7. Niang Y. 9. Ceesay A.
Substitutes
30. Brunst A. (G) 41. Duijvestijn L. 11. El Kadiri I. 22. Kehl L. 3. Kleinhansl F. 28. Lannert C. 9. Lee Ho-Jae 10. Verkooijen N. 20. Vukotic A.	15. Ando T. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 10. Hrgota B. 26. Jones R.J. 19. Kaars M. 22. Klein S. 6. Mathisen M. 33. Mitov D. (G)
Coaches
Kohfeldt F.	Rapp M.

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 17th in the Relegation - 3. Liga and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Darmstadt won 2.

Darmstadt has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

St. Pauli is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

St. Pauli is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Darmstadt has recorded 9 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:13 (averaging 1.7:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Darmstadt against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 16:6 goals (averaging 2.3:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	St. Pauli	8	2	5	1	11:9	2	11
17	Darmstadt	8	2	1	5	8:18	-10	7

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

St. Pauli: 3.95% Darmstadt: 0.82%

Last Results with these Odds

Darmstadt - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 32.09%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Darmstadt 98
German 2 Bundesliga
18.10.26	Karlsruher - Darmstadt	4:0 ✺
10.10.26	Darmstadt - Energie Cottbus	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.09.26	San Antonio - Darmstadt	0:7 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
18.09.26	Wolfsburg - Darmstadt	5:1 ✺
11.09.26	Darmstadt - Arminia Bielefeld	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWWLW
- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
17.10.26	Hannover - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
11.10.26	St. Pauli - Karlsruher	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	St. Pauli - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
20.09.26	Energie Cottbus - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	St. Pauli - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
06.05.23	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	0:3
29.10.22	St. Pauli - Darmstadt	1:1
23.04.22	St. Pauli - Darmstadt	1:2
20.11.21	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	4:0
20.02.21	St. Pauli - Darmstadt	3:2
24.10.20	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	2:2
23.05.20	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	4:0

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