Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 4 October 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello (Gobernador Julio A. Costa)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool


	Defensa y Justicia		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.4
	1.72	4	4.33	Watch
	1.75	3.94	4.71
	1.65	3.7	4.4
	1.73	3.84	4.5	Watch
	1.72	3.8	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.8)	3.83 ↑ (3.81)	4.5 ↑ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Defensa y Justicia
54.6%

Draw
24.6%

LDU Quito
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

24.5%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

25%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensa y Justicia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Defensa y Justicia - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: Defensa y Justicia will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Bologna E. (G) 4. Tripichio N. 32. Sant'Anna A. 21. Ramos S. 26. Caceres D. 8. Lopez J. 3. Soto A. 25. Cardona T. 19. Barbona D. 11. Togni G. 18. Pratto L.	22. Dominguez A. (G) 14. Quinteros J. 4. Ade R. 6. Rodriguez F. 33. Quinonez L. 16. Martinez M. 18. Piovi L. (C) 32. Ibarra R. 21. Gonzalez Baquero S. 26. Jhojan Julio 24. Paolo Guerrero
Substitutes
10. Bogarin R. 30. Castellani G. 7. Duarte M. 36. Echevarria F. 15. Escalante L. T. 29. Fernandez N. 22. Fiermarin C. (G) 34. Lopez L. 13. Lucero S. 9. Rios A. 35. Schamine F. 27. Solari S.	10. Alvarado A. 9. Alzugaray L. 19. Angulo J. 11. Chala W. 46. Charcopa J. 23. Gabbarini A. (G) 30. Luna D. 3. Mina R. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 25. Valverde J. 5. Zambrano O.
Coaches
Vaccari J.	Zubeldia L.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-3.

Recent matches Defensa y Justicia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

LDU Quito is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Defensa y Justicia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Defensa y Justicia is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Defensa y Justicia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Defensa y Justicia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.09.23	Arsenal Sarandí - Defensa y Justicia	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
27.09.23	LDU Quito - Defensa y Justicia	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
23.09.23	Central Córdoba - Defensa y Justicia	2:1 ✺
20.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Tigre	2:0 ✺
15.09.23	Defensa y Justicia - Boca Juniors	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLLWW
- LDU Quito
Copa Sudamericana
27.09.23	LDU Quito - Defensa y Justicia	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.09.23	LDU Quito - Orense	1:0 ✺
17.09.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
04.09.23	LDU Quito - Guayaquil City	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
31.08.23	São Paulo - LDU Quito	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
27.09.23	LDU Quito - Defensa y Justicia	3:0
18.05.22	LDU Quito - Defensa y Justicia	2:2
28.04.22	Defensa y Justicia - LDU Quito	1:2

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