Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Serie Rio de la Plata

Date: 15 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN, ESPN Premium
Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	ESPN
South-america	ESPN South, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
World	Disney+


	Defensor Sporting		Gimnasia La Plata

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.2
	3.26	3.03	2.22	Watch
	3.3	2.9	2.25
	3.49	3.08	2.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (2.7)	2.98 ↓ (3.2)	2.24 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

Watch this match and Serie Rio de la Plata with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: GolTV (English)

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
28%

Draw
30.9%

Gimnasia La Plata
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

28.4%

37.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

26.6%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Defensor Sporting's form might have worsened.

Gimnasia La Plata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Defensor Sporting, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia La Plata than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gimnasia La Plata, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Defensor Sporting - Gimnasia La Plata Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Defensor Sporting will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Gimnasia La Plata will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Machado L. (G) 8. Altez 16. Alvarez J. 22. Barco A. 17. Cadenazzi F. 9. Cambon A. 3. De los Santos G. 2. Lima A. 13. Marchesini F. 5. Montoya W. 4. Rodriguez	23. Insfran N. (G) 11. Briasco N. 30. Castillo R. 19. Castro L. 5. Fernandez M. 36. Garayalde N. 3. Mastrangelo D. 4. Morales L. 38. Panaro M. 15. Pintado J. 6. Suso G.
Substitutes
25. Biscayzacu X. 12. Dawson K. (G) 29. Dudok R. 27. Jorge J. 14. Martinez 21. Prieto K. 18. Soria A. 24. Torterolo 15. Viacava J. 26. Wunsch N.	28. Corbalan F. 2. Cortazzo J. 10. De Blasis P. 29. Galindez P. 1. Ingolotti L. (G) 34. Mamut L. 16. Max A. 40. Penalva V. 31. Primante S. 25. Sosa A. 26. Torres F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 🟨,
33', 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Panaro M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Cadenazzi F. ↓, Navarro L. ↑,
46', Lima A. ↓, Biscayzacu X. ↑,
46', Rodriguez G. ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
46', Barco A. ↓, Jorge J. ↑,
46', Montoya W. ↓, Soria A. ↑,
46', Marchesini F. ↓, Viacava J. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Biscayzacu X. ⚽,
61', De los Santos G. ↓, Martinez ↑,
61', Cambon A. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
61', Alvarez J. ↓, Dudok R. ↑,
61', Altez K. ↓, Torterolo A. ↑,
66', 1 - 2, Castro L. ⚽,
79', 🟨,
80', 2 - 2, Soria A. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 3, Torres F. ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Defensor Sporting is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gimnasia La Plata is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Defensor Sporting have a series of guest games.

Gimnasia La Plata will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Uruguay Copa
06.12.24	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:3 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.11.24	Miramar Misiones - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
27.11.24	Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting	3:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
22.11.24	Boston River - Defensor Sporting	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
17.11.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WTLWL
- Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.12.24	Platense - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
08.12.24	Gimnasia La Plata - Talleres de Córdoba	0:1 ✺
01.12.24	Boca Juniors - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
24.11.24	Gimnasia La Plata - Atlético Tucumán	1:0 ✺
21.11.24	Independiente - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWL

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