Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Serie Rio de la Plata

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Luis Franzini (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Brazil	Disney+
World	Disney+


	Defensor Sporting		Independiente

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5	3.1	1.8
	5.04	3.26	1.78	Watch
	4	3.1	1.85
	4.18	3.34	1.88	Watch
	5	3.1	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.64 ↑ (4.18)	3.18 ↓ (3.41)	1.82 ↑ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

Watch this match and Serie Rio de la Plata with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: GolTV (English)

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Current Win Probability

Defensor Sporting
20%

Draw
29.2%

Independiente
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

26.9%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.5%

26.4%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Defensor Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensor Sporting than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Defensor Sporting - Independiente Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dawson K. (G)
16. Alvarez J.
22. Barco A.
25. Biscayzacu X.
3. De los Santos G.
27. Jorge J.
5. Montoya W.
21. Prieto K.
18. Soria A.
7. Spinelli C.
15. Viacava J.
Substitutes
19. Abreu D.
8. Altez K.
6. Amaro M.
24. Bruschi S.
9. Cambon A.
29. Dudok R.
20. Konig L. A.
23. Machado L. (G)
13. Marchesini F.
14. Martinez D.
26. Wunsch N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
3', 0 - 1, Millan L. ⚽,
9', 1 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽,
32', 1 - 2, Montiel S. ⚽,
34', 1 - 3, Loyola F. ⚽,
36', De los Santos G. 🟨,
41', Sporle A. 🟨,
42', Valdez S. 🟨,
44', Alvarez J. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 4, Avalos G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Montoya W. ↓, Wunsch N. ↑,
46', Sporle A. ↓, Gimenez M. ↑,
46', Biscayzacu X. ↓, Altez K. ↑,
46', Vera F. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
46', Avalos G. ↓, de Irastorza J. ↑,
47', Jorge J. 🟨,
53', 1 - 5, Tarzia D. ⚽,
57', Prieto K. ↓, Amaro M. ↑,
57', Barco A. ↓, Dudok R. ↑,
57', 🟨,
60', Millan L. ↓, Mancuello F. ↑,
61', Tarzia D. ↓, Cabral L. ↑,
69', Jorge J. ↓, Konig L. A. ↑,
69', Spinelli C. ↓, Abreu D. ↑,
69', Montiel S. ↓, Fedorco J. ↑,
70', Valdez S. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
70', Marcone I. ↓, Lopez S. ↑,
79', 2 - 5, Abreu D. ⚽,
83', Viacava J. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
83', De los Santos G. ↓, Marchesini F. ↑,
83', Alvarez J. ↓, Bruschi S. ↑,
84', Soria A. ↓, Cambon A. ↑,
87', Loyola F. ↓, Salle S. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Defensor Sporting is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Independiente is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Defensor Sporting could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Defensor Sporting have a series of guest games.

In this match Independiente is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Defensor Sporting
Serie Rio de la Plata
15.01.25	Defensor Sporting - Gimnasia La Plata	2:3 ✺
Uruguay Copa
06.12.24	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	2:3 penalties ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.11.24	Miramar Misiones - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
27.11.24	Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting	3:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
22.11.24	Boston River - Defensor Sporting	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 LWTLW
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.12.24	Boca Juniors - Independiente	0:0 ✺
09.12.24	Independiente - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
01.12.24	Independiente - Central Córdoba	2:0 ✺
26.11.24	Newells Old Boys - Independiente	2:1 ✺
21.11.24	Independiente - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWWLW

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