Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Referee: Tejera G. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Progreso		Montevideo Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.9	2.6	Watch
	2.58	3	2.68
	2.83	3.2	2.73
	2.71	3.13	2.66	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.63
	2.73	3.05	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (2.84)	3.03 ↑ (2.96)	2.66 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
34.5%

Draw
30.6%

Montevideo Wanderers
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

31%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31%

29.6%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Montevideo Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo Wanderers than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mehring A. (G) 16. Trasante G. 13. Carroso H. 3. Garcia F. 40. Cougo A. 5. Pinheiro A. 8. Colombino A. (C) 11. Lopez N. 29. Fernandez N. 17. De Leon F. 23. Copelotti M.	33. Buffa A. (G) 31. Furtado N. 13. Formiliano F. 23. Olivera Moreira L. N. 6. Zazpe L. 5. Queiroz N. 25. Freitas G. 80. Urretaviscaya J. (C) 7. Rivero R. 19. Zeballos J. 30. Labandeira F.
Coaches
Rocco L.	Corujo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Lopez N. ⚽,
22', Rivero R. 🟨,
36', De Leon F. 🟨,
39', Cougo A. ↓, Kidd F. ↑,
45', Zeballos J. ↓, Levato M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Carroso H. 🟨,
55', Rivero R. ↓, Luna J. ↑,
55', Zazpe L. ↓, Baju L. ↑,
60', Furtado N. 🟨,
62', Copelotti M. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
62', De Leon F. ↓, Viera S. ↑,
69', Labandeira F. ↓, Roque R. ↑,
69', Queiroz N. ↓, Alberti J. ↑,
76', Lopez N. ↓, Paz A. ↑,
76', Fernandez N. ↓, Codagnone A. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Luna J. ⚽,
89', 2 - 1, Sanchez D. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 1.

Progreso is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Wanderers's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Progreso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:24. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.3:0.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Wanderers	9	4	3	2	12:11	1	15
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 32.39%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Montevideo Wanderers - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.57%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	3:3 ✺
26.03.26	Racing Montevideo - Progreso	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Progreso - Boston River	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLTTL
- Montevideo Wanderers
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Racing Montevideo	1:2 ✺
03.04.26	Boston River - Montevideo Wanderers	4:1 ✺
28.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Cerro	3:0 ✺
25.03.26	Albion Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
21.09.25	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:0
27.03.25	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	1:1
10.11.24	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	0:0
14.07.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	4:2
04.05.24	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	2:0
31.07.21	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	2:0
21.03.21	Montevideo Wanderers - Progreso	1:3

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