The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo 31.8%
Draw 33.5%
Alvarado 34.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
24.3%
29.5%
46.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
23.5%
28.5%
47.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo's performance.
Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alvarado might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo than the current prediction. (-8.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+13.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alvarado could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Defensores de Belgrano de Villa Ramallo - Alvarado Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Velazquez F. (G) 2. Avalos J. 10. Bacas T. 11. Bertacin J. 8. Gaitan L. 6. Gay F. 7. Luna E. 3. Pezzani F. 4. Ponce A. 5. Ramos M. 9. Roige E.
1. Bilbao E. (G) 4. Berra T. 9. Cervera G. 7. Chiozza L. 5. Federico T. 2. Fernandez T. 6. Gorgerino C. 10. Gutierrez S. 11. Makarte R. 8. Mansilla M. 3. Perez M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
11', 1 - 0, Roige E. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Cervera G. ⚽,
35', 1 - 2, Gutierrez S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
68', 🟨,
74', Perez M. ↓, Speck N. ↑,
74', Cervera G. ↓, Sosa G. ↑,
77', 2 - 2, Latof B. ⚽,
83', 🟨,
84', Roige E. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
84', Cartechini J. ↓, Gaitan L. ↑,
90+3', Velazquez F. 🟥,
Preview
First leg.
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 4th in the Promotion ~ Torneo Federal Playoffs and 1st in the Promotion ~ Torneo Federal Playoffs).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Def Belgrano VR won 2.
Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.
Def Belgrano VR could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Def Belgrano VR has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 0.5:0.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Def Belgrano VR against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:0 goals (averaging 0.8:0 per game).
Argentina
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Velazquez F. (G) 
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