Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 19

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Emelec		Vinotinto

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.7	4.75	Watch
	1.78	3.3	3.9
	1.7	3.5	4.55	Watch
	1.74	3.61	4.95
				Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.2
	1.69	3.62	4.94	Watch
	1.68	3.55	4.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.86)	3.51 ↑ (3.44)	4.56 ↑ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
53.4%

Draw
26.4%

Vinotinto
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

27.1%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

26.5%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Emelec - Vinotinto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Emelec (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Emelec will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. (C) 16. Bagui Tobar D. O. 18. Caicedo L. 30. Castillo Saa J. L. 4. Barco A. 79. Quinonez J. 28. Solis M. 8. Meli M. 10. Cueva C. 9. Castelli F.	25. Mitre L. (G) 6. Nardelli G. 26. Hernandez E. 2. Iriarte I. 23. Gomez L. 15. Larotonda C. 19. Melo A. 11. Mina A. 10. Luna D. (C) 18. Ushina K. 17. Monti R.
Substitutes
17. Ayovi J. 55. Cevallos J. 13. Cuero Palacio J. R. 58. Cuero Palacio M. A. 25. Garces R. 21. Gonzalez A. 11. Jhon Sanchez 80. Munoz E. 23. Palma J. 6. Quintero S. 19. Ruiz J. 33. Valero M. (G)	4. Aguirre A. 13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 53. Conforme W. 52. Julio M. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J.
Coaches
Nasuti C.	Grabowski J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Meli M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Solis M. ↓, Cuero Palacio J. R. ↑,
71', Meli M. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Cevallos J. ⚽, Cueva C. (A),
82', Luna D. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
82', Melo A. ↓, Julio M. ↑,
83', Barco A. ↓, Quintero S. ↑,
83', Castelli F. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
90+7', 2 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Caicedo R. (A),
90+8', Gonzalez A. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

In recent matches, Emelec has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Vinotinto's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vinotinto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Emelec is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Emelec won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
29.06.25	Deportivo Macará - Emelec	1:1 ✺
25.06.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	Emelec - Delfín	2:2 ✺
31.05.25	Emelec - Orense	1:0 ✺
25.05.25	El Nacional - Emelec	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTTWL
- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.06.25	Vinotinto - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	Deportivo Macará - Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Vinotinto - LDU Quito	1:2 ✺
02.06.25	Vinotinto - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
24.05.25	Manta - Vinotinto	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.03.25	Vinotinto - Emelec	2:1

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