Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 18

Date: 30 June 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Contreras O. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Turkey	S Sport+
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vinotinto		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.25	1.95	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.1
	3.4	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.63	3.47	2.04
				Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.2
	3.58	3.34	2.04	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.09)	3.27 ↑ (3.22)	2.06 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
27%

Draw
28.2%

SD Aucas
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

29.3%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

28.6%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SD Aucas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Vinotinto - SD Aucas Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Aucas will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mitre L. (G) 23. Gomez L. 4. Aguirre A. (C) 2. Iriarte I. 36. Nardelli G. 52. Julio M. 18. Ushina K. 15. Larotonda C. 40. Mera F. 17. Monti R. 10. Luna D.	32. Piedra H. (G) 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 21. Spina A. L. 2. Segura E. 27. Ciccioli U. 8. Mina A. 25. Jaramilo R. 15. Mina J. 22. Cano L. 9. Montenegro B. 18. Almagro A.
Substitutes
13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 5. Coba K. 53. Conforme W. 26. Hernandez E. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 19. Melo A. 11. Mina A. 9. Molina N.	34. Bautista R. 44. Gruezo E. 6. Mancilla Suarez S. R. 4. Patino D. 19. Pepinos E. 28. Quinonez R. 24. Resendez E. (G) 79. Sanabria M. 36. Sotomayor N. 17. Zambrano C.
Coaches
Grabowski J.	Pereyra G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Mera F. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
20', 0 - 1, Montenegro B. ⚽, Cano L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Mina A. ↓, Melo A. ↑,
46', Aguirre A. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,
63', Spina A. L. 🟨,
65', Julio M. ↓, Coba K. ↑,
66', Almagro A. ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
70', Mina A. 🟨,
78', Larotonda C. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
80', Cano L. ↓, Patino D. ↑,
82', Piedra H. 🟨,
89', Montenegro B. ↓, Zambrano C. ↑,
89', Mina A. ↓, Pepinos E. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

Recent form of Vinotinto has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aucas's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aucas might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.06.25	Deportivo Macará - Vinotinto	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Vinotinto - LDU Quito	1:2 ✺
02.06.25	Vinotinto - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
24.05.25	Manta - Vinotinto	2:2 ✺
18.05.25	Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWTL
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.06.25	SD Aucas - Deportivo Cuenca	1:3 ✺
15.06.25	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
01.06.25	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	2:0 ✺
24.05.25	Orense - SD Aucas	2:1 ✺
17.05.25	SD Aucas - Manta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.03.25	SD Aucas - Vinotinto	2:2
Club Friendly
22.01.25	SD Aucas - Vinotinto	0:1 penalties

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