Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 20

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Achter de Kazerne (Mechelen)

Referee: Ledda M. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza
Spain	DAZN Espana


	KV Mechelen		Dender EH

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3.5	3.3
	2.05	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2	3.45	3.79	Watch
	2	3.2	3.7
	2.05	3.46	3.71	Watch
	2.05	3.33	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.05)	3.38 ↓ (3.65)	3.6 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KV Mechelen
46%

Draw
27.8%

Dender EH
26.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

25.7%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

27.5%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KV Mechelen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Dender EH has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KV Mechelen than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.3%	2.9%	11.8%

KV Mechelen - Dender EH Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Dender EH (2.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Mechelen (2.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: KV Mechelen will win (28 of 33 users predict this - 84.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.62% – 97.08%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): KV Mechelen will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Mechelen (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Dender EH (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Miras N. (G) 33. St. Jago T. 8. Konate M. 4. Diouf G. 7. Koudou T. 17. Servais M. 6. Hammar F. (C) 23. Zekri M. 21. Ozdemir H. 20. Lauberbach L. 9. van Brederode M.	30. Dietsch G. (G) 44. De Fougerolles L. 21. Cools K. (C) 5. Marijnissen L. 7. Goncalves B. 88. Ferraro F. 24. Viltard M. 16. Kvet R. 17. Mbamba N. 77. Nsimba B. 9. Toshevski D.
Substitutes
11. Bafdili B. 12. Bande H. 39. Decoene M. 22. Golic L. 2. Halhal R. 27. Kiki 10. Kireev M. 5. Teague R. 15. Van Ingelgom T. (G)	90. Berte M. 1. Fortin L. (G) 20. Hrncar D. 27. Jahanbakhsh A. 19. Kadiri J. A. 15. Koton K. 67. Moutha-Sebtaoui N. 18. Rodes N. 70. Sambu M.
Coaches
Vanderbiest F.	Milkon H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Koudou T. ⚽,
40', Goncalves B. 🟨,
45+6', Kvet R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Toshevski D. 🟨,
56', Konate M. 🟨,
61', 1 - 1, Toshevski D. ⚽, Goncalves B. (A),
65', Ozdemir H. ↓, Halhal R. ↑,
65', Zekri M. ↓, Kireev M. ↑,
68', De Fougerolles L. 🟨,
77', Toshevski D. ↓, Berte M. ↑,
77', Marijnissen L. ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
83', Viltard M. ↓, Rodes N. ↑,
88', De Fougerolles L. 🟨,
89', Koudou T. ↓, Teague R. ↑,
89', Konate M. ↓, Kiki ↑,
90', Nsimba B. ↓, Jahanbakhsh A. ↑,
90+5', Diouf G. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: ) and 16 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Dender EH has had a series of home games.

Mechelen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mechelen: Antonio B. (International duty) De Wolf O. (Knee Injury) Halhal R. (Ankle Injury) Marsa J. (Muscle Injury) Raman B. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Dender EH: Adewusi R. (Inactive) Dion M. S. (Muscle Injury) Fredrick B. (Knee Injury) Oratmangoen R. (Knee Injury) Verrips M. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Mechelen: Teague R. (Knock)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mechelen won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 3.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mechelen won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 3.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KV Mechelen
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
21.12.25	Sint-Truidense - KV Mechelen	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Cercle Brugge - KV Mechelen	2:3 ✺
07.12.25	KV Mechelen - Charleroi	1:0 ✺
Belgian Cup
04.12.25	Charleroi - KV Mechelen	2:0 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
28.11.25	KV Mechelen - Standard Liège	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWLL
- FCV Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
20.12.25	Dender EH - Standard Liège	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Dender EH - Club Brugge	1:5 ✺
05.12.25	RAAL La Louvière - Dender EH	1:2 ✺
Belgian Cup
02.12.25	Dender EH - Standard Liège	3:2 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
29.11.25	Dender EH - Westerlo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
19.10.25	Dender EH - KV Mechelen	1:3
24.05.25	Dender EH - KV Mechelen	2:2
04.04.25	KV Mechelen - Dender EH	5:2
16.03.25	KV Mechelen - Dender EH	2:1
26.10.24	Dender EH - KV Mechelen	2:5

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