Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 9 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Referee: Vargas G. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4


	Deportivo Garcilaso		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.55
	2.65	3.25	2.6	Watch
	2.76	3.17	2.7
	2.82	3.23	2.59
	2.6	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.72	3.28	2.52	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.31)	3.23 ↓ (3.27)	2.58 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Garcilaso
34.7%

Draw
29%

Lanús
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

28.5%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

27.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Garcilaso's form might have worsened.

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	40%	50%

Deportivo Garcilaso - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Deportivo Garcilaso will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Lanús will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lanús: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Penny D. (C) 22. Canales E. 16. Beltran C. 4. Caicedo L. 19. Cornejo M. 27. Bazan J. 14. Diez C. 23. Urruti L. 7. Gomez A. 11. Gentile G. 9. Ugarriza A.	1. Aguerre A. (G) 35. Aguirre B. 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Luciatti B. 22. Soler J. C. 5. Pena Biafore F. 15. Loaiza R. 8. Boggio L. (C) 21. Lotti A. 10. Marcelino Moreno 9. Bou W.
Substitutes
10. Chicaiza L. 6. Cuero J. 36. Cuero M. 32. Erustes P. 24. Gordillo A. 13. Lojas J. 21. Perleche E. 5. Ramos C. 30. Simisterra R. 12. Vargas J. (G) 25. Vargas M. (G) 8. Ventura F.	42. Acosta L. (G) 40. Alvarez F. 25. Aquino D. 24. Caceres J. 32. Carrera R. 19. Gonzalez M. 3. Morgantini N. 2. Munoz E. 4. Perez G. 17. Rodriguez A. 27. Torres J. 16. Watson F. N.
Coaches
Redin B.	Zielinski R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Bou W. ⚽, Marcelino Moreno (A),
37', Aguerre A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Boggio L. ↓, Caceres J. ↑,
46', Canales E. ↓, Erustes P. ↑,
46', Cornejo M. ↓, Chicaiza L. ↑,
50', Caicedo L. 🟨,
54', 0 - 2, Marcelino Moreno ⚽,
55', Marcelino Moreno 🟨,
58', Beltran C. 🟨,
61', Bazan J. ↓, Perleche E. ↑,
61', Gentile G. ↓, Cuero M. ↑,
67', Loaiza R. 🟨,
69', Urruti L. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
72', Lotti A. ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,
73', Aguirre B. ↓, Carrera R. ↑,
80', Bou W. 🟨,
81', Bou W. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
84', Loaiza R. ↓, Alvarez F. ↑,
90', Gomez A. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Deportivo Garcilaso could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
04.05.24	Carlos A. Mannucci - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:1 ✺
28.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Los Chankas	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
19.04.24	Cienciano - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:2 ✺
15.04.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Sporting Cristal	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TTTWL
- CA Lanús
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Metropolitanos - Lanús	0:2 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
16.04.24	Lanús - Estudiantes La Plata	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Lanús - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
07.04.24	Racing - Lanús	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
03.04.24	Cuiabá - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Lanús - Deportivo Garcilaso	2:1

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