Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Independiente del Valle		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	5	Watch
	1.68	3.45	4.95	Watch
	1.57	4.05	5.75
	1.68	3.32	5.79	Watch
				Watch
	1.71	3.68	5.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.6)	3.62 ↓ (4.03)	5.38 ↑ (5.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
56.5%

Draw
26%

Once Caldas
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

23.2%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

21.8%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Independiente del Valle - Once Caldas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Independiente del Valle will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. (C) 15. Cortez G. 32. Mendez J. 17. Rodriguez A. 6. Alcivar J. 26. Cazares 55. Guagua D. 77. Spinelli C.	12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 23. Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 18. Riquett J. 30. Tamayo K. 19. Garcia M. 88. Mejia R. 28. Zuleta M. 10. Sanchez L. 7. Barrios M. 17. Moreno D. (C)
Substitutes
21. Arroyo J. P. 12. Bores E. (G) 11. Hoyos M. 53. Lerma J. 19. Loor L. 31. Pata E. 23. Santamaria T. 10. Sornoza J. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 18. Zabala C. 2. Zarate L.	8. Beltran E. 34. Cardona J. 15. Castano J. 6. Diaz J. 9. Gomez P. 92. Ibarguen A. 3. Malagon J. 4. Navarro E. 24. Palacios L. 35. Parra J. (G) 5. Rojas I. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A.
Coaches
Rabanal J.	Herrera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽, Cuesta Santos J. D. (A),
34', Carabajal M. 🟥,
39', Cazares ↓, Zarate L. ↑,
45+2', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. ↓, Cardona J. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Moreno D. ⚽, Garcia M. (A),
56', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
58', Mejia R. 🟨,
59', Rodriguez A. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
59', Mendez J. ↓, Loor L. ↑,
72', Zuleta M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑,
73', Mejia R. ↓, Rojas I. ↑,
78', Cortez G. ↓, Velasco A. ↑,
78', Fernandez M. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
78', Sanchez L. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
83', Tamayo K. ↓, Castano J. ↑,
90+3', Castano J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Once Caldas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ind del Valle is considered a favorite.

We predict that Ind del Valle will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Técnico Universitario	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Orense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWW
- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
13.09.25	Once Caldas - Envigado	1:0 ✺
09.09.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pereira	1:0 ✺
01.09.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
Colombian Copa
28.08.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 WTWWW

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