Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 17 September 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:30	Disney+, ESPN 2
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	10:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	02:30	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	21:30	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	03:30	Max Sport 4
Canada	20:30	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Colombia	19:30	ESPN
Croatia	02:30	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	07:30	Mola TV
Israel	03:30	Sport 3
Italy	02:30	Como TV
Kosovo	02:30	Arena Premium 3
Malaysia	08:30	Mola
Mexico	18:30	Disney+
New Zealand	12:30	beIN Connect
Peru	19:30	Disney+
Portugal	01:30	Sport TV2
Russia	03:30	Okko Sport
Serbia	02:30	Arena Premium 3
Slovenia	02:30	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	02:30	LaLiga+
Turkey	03:30	S Sport+
Uruguay	21:30	Disney+
Usa	20:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	20:30	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Independiente del Valle		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	5	Watch
	1.68	3.45	4.95	Watch
	1.57	4.05	5.75
	1.68	3.32	5.79	Watch
				Watch
	1.71	3.68	5.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.6)	3.62 ↓ (4.03)	5.38 ↑ (5.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
56.5%

Draw
26%

Once Caldas
17.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.5%

23.2%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

21.1%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Independiente del Valle - Once Caldas Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ind del Valle (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Independiente del Valle will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 14. Carabajal M. 5. Schunke R. (C) 15. Cortez G. 32. Mendez J. 17. Rodriguez A. 6. Alcivar J. 26. Cazares 55. Guagua D. 77. Spinelli C.	12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 23. Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 18. Riquett J. 30. Tamayo K. 19. Garcia M. 88. Mejia R. 28. Zuleta M. 10. Sanchez L. 7. Barrios M. 17. Moreno D. (C)
Substitutes
21. Arroyo J. P. 12. Bores E. (G) 11. Hoyos M. 53. Lerma J. 19. Loor L. 31. Pata E. 23. Santamaria T. 10. Sornoza J. 52. Vasquez Y. 33. Velasco A. 18. Zabala C. 2. Zarate L.	8. Beltran E. 34. Cardona J. 15. Castano J. 6. Diaz J. 9. Gomez P. 92. Ibarguen A. 3. Malagon J. 4. Navarro E. 24. Palacios L. 35. Parra J. (G) 5. Rojas I. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A.
Coaches
Rabanal J.	Herrera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Moreno D. ⚽, Cuesta Santos J. D. (A),
34', Carabajal M. 🟥,
39', Cazares ↓, Zarate L. ↑,
45+2', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. ↓, Cardona J. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Moreno D. ⚽, Garcia M. (A),
56', Rodriguez A. 🟨,
58', Mejia R. 🟨,
59', Rodriguez A. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
59', Mendez J. ↓, Loor L. ↑,
72', Zuleta M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑,
73', Mejia R. ↓, Rojas I. ↑,
78', Cortez G. ↓, Velasco A. ↑,
78', Fernandez M. ↓, Hoyos M. ↑,
78', Sanchez L. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
83', Tamayo K. ↓, Castano J. ↑,
90+3', Castano J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Once Caldas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Ind del Valle is considered a favorite.

We predict that Ind del Valle will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Técnico Universitario	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.08.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2 penalties ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Orense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWW
- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
13.09.25	Once Caldas - Envigado	1:0 ✺
09.09.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pereira	1:0 ✺
01.09.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
Colombian Copa
28.08.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 WTWWW

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