Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Referee: Ramirez M. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 2, Tigo Sports App
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Malaysia	Mola
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	Tigo Sports+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Inter


	Once Caldas		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.78	3.2	2.42	Watch
	2.98	3.33	2.48
	2.93	3.19	2.42	Watch
	2.79	3.26	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.53)	3.25 ↑ (3.18)	2.48 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
32.8%

Draw
29.1%

Independiente del Valle
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

29.5%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

28.7%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Once Caldas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Once Caldas - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Ind del Valle will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Aguirre J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 23. Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 18. Riquett J. 30. Tamayo K. 19. Garcia M. 88. Mejia R. 7. Barrios M. 10. Sanchez L. 28. Zuleta M. 17. Moreno D. (C)	22. Villar G. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 33. Velasco A. 5. Schunke R. 15. Cortez G. 6. Alcivar J. 7. Mercado P. 55. Guagua D. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 11. Hoyos M. 77. Spinelli C.
Substitutes
8. Beltran E. 34. Cardona J. 6. Diaz J. 9. Gomez P. 92. Ibarguen A. 3. Malagon J. 4. Navarro E. 24. Palacios L. 35. Parra J. (G) 70. Quinones D. 5. Rojas I. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A.	21. Arroyo J. P. 12. Bores E. (G) 26. Cazares 30. Ibarra R. 19. Loor L. 32. Mendez J. 4. Quinonez O. 17. Rodriguez A. 23. Santamaria T. 52. Vasquez Y. 18. Zabala C. 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Herrera H.	Rabanal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Hoyos M. ⚽, Sornoza J. (A),
45+2', Moreno D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 2, Hoyos M. ⚽, Sornoza J. (A),
55', Tamayo K. ↓, Palacios L. ↑,
58', Sanchez L. ↓, Beltran E. ↑,
58', Zuleta M. ↓, Gomez P. ↑,
72', Alcivar J. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
74', Cuesta Santos J. D. 🟨,
79', Guagua D. ↓, Cazares ↑,
80', Cazares 🟨,
86', Hoyos M. ↓, Arroyo J. P. ↑,
86', Sornoza J. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
86', Cortez G. ↓, Loor L. ↑,
90', Spinelli C. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Moreno D. (Pen),
1, Cazares (Pen),
2, Mejia R. (Pen),
2, Mendez J. (Pen),
3, Gomez P. (Pen),
3, Ibarra R. (Pen),
4, Barrios M. (Pen),
4, Schunke R. (Pen),
5, Garcia M. (Pen),
5, Spinelli C. (Pen),
6, Aguirre J. (Pen),
6, Loor L. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg result: 2-0. 2nd leg.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Once Caldas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Once Caldas - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 37.04%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
19.09.25	América de Cali - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
17.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Once Caldas	0:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
13.09.25	Once Caldas - Envigado	1:0 ✺
09.09.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Once Caldas	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pereira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 LWWTW
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.09.25	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
17.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Once Caldas	0:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Vinotinto	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Independiente del Valle - Técnico Universitario	4:0 ✺
24.08.25	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
17.09.25	Independiente del Valle - Once Caldas	0:2

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