Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santo Domingo de Guzmán (Mixco)


	Deportivo Mixco		Municipal

	1	X	2
	2.80	3.05	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.35)	3.05 ↓ (3.2)	2.28 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 12.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Mixco
31.8%

Draw
29.2%

Municipal
39%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

27.8%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

30.1%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Mixco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Mixco's form might have worsened.

Municipal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Mixco than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Mixco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Municipal than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Municipal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

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Preview

A mid-table host welcomes the league leaders in an exciting contest (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 1st in the Promotion - Liga Nacional (Apertura - Playoffs - Semi - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mixco won 1.

Mixco has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Municipal shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Mixco may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Mixco has recorded 4 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:34 (averaging 0.6:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mixco against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 9:8 goals (averaging 0.9:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Municipal	10	7	2	1	16:5	11	23
6	Deportivo Mixco	11	6	0	5	19:17	2	18

Last Results with these Odds

Municipal - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.26%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Mixco
Guatemala Liga Nacional
27.09.26	Deportivo Mixco - Antigua GFC	3:1 ✺
20.09.26	Malacateco - Deportivo Mixco	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Mixco - Aurora	3:2 ✺
09.09.26	Deportivo San Pedro - Deportivo Mixco	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Deportivo Mixco - Comunicaciones	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLT
- CSD Municipal
Guatemala Liga Nacional
24.09.26	Municipal - Suchitepéquez	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Municipal - Malacateco	2:2 ✺
10.09.26	Aurora - Municipal	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Municipal - Deportivo San Pedro	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Comunicaciones - Municipal	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Guatemala Liga Nacional
24.07.26	Municipal - Deportivo Mixco	2:0
09.05.26	Municipal - Deportivo Mixco	5:0
06.05.26	Deportivo Mixco - Municipal	0:2
26.04.26	Municipal - Deportivo Mixco	3:0
04.03.26	Deportivo Mixco - Municipal	1:0
09.11.25	Deportivo Mixco - Municipal	1:0
03.09.25	Municipal - Deportivo Mixco	3:1

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