Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Pedro Bidegain (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Uruguay	DSports 310
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DSports 1
World	Onefootball


	San Lorenzo		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.63	2.75	3.1	Watch
	2.75	2.95	2.7
	2.62	2.68	3.05
	2.71	2.79	3.2
	2.59	2.73	3.16	Watch
	2.63	2.63	3
	2.66	2.65	3.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.3)	2.74 ↓ (2.99)	3.05 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Lorenzo
35.2%

Draw
34.1%

Santos
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

31.2%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

30.2%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Lorenzo's form might have worsened.

Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Lorenzo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	62.5%	0%

San Lorenzo - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. San Lorenzo will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - San Lorenzo (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. San Lorenzo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gill O. (G) 32. Herrera E. 4. Romana J. 55. Montenegro L. 24. Tripichio N. (C) 10. Gulli F. 8. Insaurralde M. 6. De Ritis M. 9. Cuello A. 11. Reali M. 29. Auzmendi R.	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 12. Mayke 4. Lucas Verissimo 14. Luan Peres 31. Escobar G. 15. Willian Arao 28. Oliva C. 49. Gabriel Bontempo 32. Rollheiser B. 10. Neymar (C) 9. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
26. Abrego G. 28. Barrios N. 16. Corujo G. 25. Devecchi J. (G) 18. Herazo D. 44. Hernandez M. 14. Ladstatter A. 34. Lopez F. 5. Perruzzi I. 13. Rattalino J. 17. Rodriguez G. 3. Rodriguez Pagano T.	22. Barreal A. 1. Diogenes (G) 98. Frias A. 18. Igor Vinicius 26. Joao Ananias 5. Joao Schmidt 47. Mateus Xavier 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 7. Robinho Jr. 11. Rony 16. Thaciano
Coaches
Alvarez G.	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Cuello A. ⚽, Gulli F. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Rollheiser B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Willian Arao ↓, Joao Schmidt ↑,
46', Luan Peres 🟨,
56', Reali M. ↓, Barrios N. ↑,
63', Gulli F. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
70', Rollheiser B. ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
76', Escobar G. 🟨,
83', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Mateus Xavier ↑,
83', Mayke ↓, Igor Vinicius ↑,
88', Lucas Verissimo 🟨,
90+1', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Thaciano ↑,
90+2', Auzmendi R. ↓, Herazo D. ↑,
90+3', Cuello A. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,

Preview

San Lorenzo is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Santos has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Santos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Santos has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, San Lorenzo won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

San Lorenzo - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.52%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Platense - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
16.04.26	San Lorenzo - Deportivo Cuenca	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.04.26	Newells Old Boys - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Deportivo Recoleta - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWTT
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	Bahia - Santos	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.04.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.04.26	Santos - Fluminense	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	Santos - Deportivo Recoleta	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Santos - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
13.04.21	Santos - San Lorenzo	2:2
06.04.21	San Lorenzo - Santos	1:3

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