Match Info

Championship - Round 8

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Derby County		Charlton Athletic

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.2	2.57	Watch
	2.81	3.05	2.71	Watch
	2.79	3.16	2.79
	6.85	1.31	6.38	Watch
	2.78	3.06	2.71	Watch
	2.47	3.1	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.47)	2.81 ↓ (3.1)	3.37 ↑ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
31.1%

Draw
37.5%

Charlton Athletic
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

30.6%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

30%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.

Charlton Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Charlton Athletic than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.6%	25.7%	25.7%

Derby County - Charlton Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 17 - 50%). Charlton will win (votes: 9 - 26.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 33.2% – 66.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Charlton (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Derby (4.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Derby (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Derby (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Charlton (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 1st Half - Derby (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Derby (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 11 - 55%). Charlton (votes: 5 - 25%). Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 22. Johnston M. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 20. Elder C. 32. Adams E. 27. Travis L. (C) 7. Agyemang P. 42. Clark B. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 9. Morris C.	1. Kaminski T. (G) 2. Ramsay K. 5. Jones L. 3. Gillesphey M. 28. Bree J. 14. Carey S. 6. Coventry C. 10. Docherty G. (C) 17. Bell A. 23. Kelman C. 7. Campbell T.
Substitutes
4. Batth D. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 24. Nyambe R. 18. Ozoh D. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 14. Weimann A.	18. Anderson K. 30. Apter R. 8. Berry L. 32. Burke R. 41. Knibbs H. 11. Leaburn M. 21. Maynard-Brewer A. (G) 22. Olaofe T. 26. Rankin-Costello J.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Jones N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Bree J. ⚽, Docherty G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Adams E. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
57', Kelman C. ↓, Leaburn M. ↑,
57', Carey S. ↓, Knibbs H. ↑,
57', Bree J. ↓, Burke R. ↑,
65', Brereton Diaz B. 🟨,
68', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
68', Johnston M. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
71', Ozoh D. 🟨,
77', Campbell T. ↓, Olaofe T. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Clarke M. ⚽, Travis L. (A),
84', Clark B. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
88', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 21 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Derby has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Brewster R. (Injury) Langas S. (Knee Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Charlton: Godden M. (Calf Injury) Mannion W. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Charlton: Berry L. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Derby won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:14. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 15:6. (average 1.9:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Derby County - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 38.36%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
27.09.25	Wrexham - Derby County	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Derby County - Preston North End	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Ipswich Town - Derby County	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burnley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 TLWTL
- Charlton Athletic
English League Championship
27.09.25	Charlton Athletic - Blackburn Rovers	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Sheffield United - Charlton Athletic	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Charlton Athletic - Millwall	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Queens Park Rangers - Charlton Athletic	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Cambridge United - Charlton Athletic	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
27.02.24	Derby County - Charlton Athletic	1:2
03.02.24	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	0:1
18.02.23	Derby County - Charlton Athletic	2:0
06.08.22	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	1:0
English League Championship
30.12.19	Derby County - Charlton Athletic	2:1
19.10.19	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	3:0
16.04.16	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	0:1

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