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Current Win Probability
Derby County 32.4%
Draw 31.6%
Preston North End 36%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.6%
29.4%
29%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42%
29.7%
28.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.
Preston North End has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Preston North End's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+9.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Preston North End than the current prediction. (-7.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Preston North End, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
63.6%
27.3%
9.1%
Derby County - Preston North End Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Preston will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 35.2% – 92%.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 4 - 50%). Preston (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 3. Forsyth C. 22. Johnston M. 27. Travis L. (C) 32. Adams E. 20. Elder C. 42. Clark B. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 9. Morris C.
1. Iversen D. (G) 14. Storey J. 19. Gibson L. 16. Hughes A. 2. Valentin P. 21. Devine A. 4. Whiteman B. (C) 8. McCann A. 26. Small T. 17. Dobbin L. 28. Osmajic M.
Substitutes
7. Agyemang P. 4. Batth D. 19. Jackson K. 24. Nyambe R. 18. Ozoh D. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 14. Weimann A.
5. Armstrong H. 10. Frokjaer-Jensen M. 9. Jebbison D. 6. Lindsay L. 42. Offiah O. 24. Smith M. 22. Thordarson S. T. 3. Vukcevic A. 12. Walton J. (G)
Coaches
Eustace J.
Heckingbottom P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Devine A. ⚽, Dobbin L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Elder C. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
55', Sanderson D. 🟨,
66', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
67', Dobbin L. ↓, Armstrong H. ↑,
72', Iversen D. 🟨,
74', Small T. ↓, Lindsay L. ↑,
74', Osmajic M. ↓, Jebbison D. ↑,
75', Adams E. 🟨,
85', Devine A. ↓, Smith M. ↑,
85', Gibson L. ↓, Vukcevic A. ↑,
87', Adams E. ↓, Ward J. ↑,
87', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
90+6', Smith M. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 2.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
Recently, Preston has had a series of home games.
Derby could have a small edge in this match.
There will not play in Derby: Ebuka C.
(Injury)
Nelson C.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Preston: Brady R.
(Calf Injury)
Keane W.
(Muscle Injury)
Potts B.
(Muscle Injury)
Thompson J.
(Leg Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Beck O.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Blackett-Taylor C.
(Hamstring Injury)
Langas S.
(Knee Injury)
There are questionable in Preston: Osmajic M.
(Ribs Injury)
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Derby won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:9. (average 0.9:0.5).
Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1:0.4).
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Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 
Sanderson D. 
Forsyth C. 
Adams E. 
Elder C. 
Brereton Diaz B. 
Iversen D. (G) 
Hughes A. 
Valentin P. 
McCann A. 
Osmajic M. 
Agyemang P. 
Nyambe R. 
Salvesen L. 
Weimann A. 
Jebbison D. 
Thordarson S. T. 
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