Match Info

SCOTLAND: CHALLENGE CUP - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 24 January 2023, Tuesday

Location: Dens Park (Dundee)


	Dundee		Dunfermline Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	3.75	Watch
	1.82	3.5	3.5
	1.75	3.6	4.25
	1.88	3.45	3.5
	1.84	3.58	4.02
	1.73	3.4	4.2
	1.82	3.72	3.98
	1.91	3.5	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.52)	3.51 ↓ (4.03)	3.84 ↓ (5.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dundee
50.2%

Draw
26%

Dunfermline Athletic
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

22.6%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

21.7%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dundee has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dundee's form might have worsened.

Dunfermline Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dunfermline Athletic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundee than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dundee, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dunfermline Athletic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	13.6%	22.7%

Dundee - Dunfermline Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Dundee will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Dunfermline will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dundee: 43.5% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dundee won 2.

Dundee is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Dunfermline in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Dundee could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Dundee have a series of guest games.

In this match Dundee is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Dundee won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Dundee won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dundee FC
Scottish Cup
21.01.23	St. Mirren - Dundee	1:0 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
06.01.23	Raith Rovers - Dundee	1:1 ✺
02.01.23	Dundee - Arbroath	2:4 ✺
23.12.22	Ayr United - Dundee	0:2 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.12.22	Falkirk - Dundee	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTLWW
- Dunfermline Athletic
Scottish Cup
21.01.23	Partick Thistle - Dunfermline Athletic	2:1 penalties ✺
Scottish League One
14.01.23	Dunfermline Athletic - Peterhead	4:0 ✺
07.01.23	Edinburgh City - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1 ✺
24.12.22	Kelty Hearts - Dunfermline Athletic	1:2 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
09.12.22	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
13.04.21	Dunfermline Athletic - Dundee	0:0
27.03.21	Dundee - Dunfermline Athletic	3:2
19.12.20	Dundee - Dunfermline Athletic	3:3
24.01.20	Dunfermline Athletic - Dundee	2:0
14.12.19	Dundee - Dunfermline Athletic	4:3
02.08.19	Dunfermline Athletic - Dundee	2:2
Scottish League Cup
22.07.18	Dundee - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1

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