Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Southwest University Park (El Paso, TX)

Referee: Carvajal E. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	El Paso Locomotive		Sacramento Republic

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.7
	2.4	3.1	2.82
	2.48	3.2	3.02
	1.96	3.45	3.72	Watch
	2.43	3.13	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.5)	3.2 ↑ (3.1)	3.02 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Paso Locomotive
40.2%

Draw
29.1%

Sacramento Republic
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

29.9%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

30.8%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Paso Locomotive has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Sacramento Republic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Paso Locomotive than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacramento Republic than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

El Paso Locomotive - Sacramento Republic Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacramento Republic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Waite J. (G) 24. Diaz M. 25. Ortiz A. (C) 21. Twumasi K. 12. Ruiz R. 8. Daroma F. 6. Calvillo E. 16. Gabriel Torres 11. Sorto C. 14. Avila R. 10. Moreno A.	1. Vitiello D. (G) 55. Ukaegbu C. 6. Kleemann F. 4. Desmond L. 3. Spaulding R. 19. Ross N. 20. Willey B. 23. Edwards A. 10. Parano C. 9. Herrera J. 24. Jamieson L.
Substitutes
3. Ackwei W. 30. Coronado R. 29. Hoban K. 1. Mora-Mora S. (G) 28. Mora O. 31. Rodriguez E. 7. Romero B. 5. Tony Alfaro 77. Villagomez J.	22. Benitez M. 90. Bennett K. 11. Cicerone R. 21. Djedje R. 2. Gurr J. 8. Lopez R. 99. Mazzola J. (G) 5. Timmer J. 17. Wanner D.
Coaches
Cabrera W.	Collins N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Ukaegbu C. 🟨,
21', Ortiz A. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Gabriel Torres ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jamieson L. ↓, Cicerone R. ↑,
46', Edwards A. ↓, Gurr J. ↑,
47', Moreno A. 🟨,
51', Calvillo E. 🟨,
66', Spaulding R. ↓, Benitez M. ↑,
66', Ukaegbu C. ↓, Wanner D. ↑,
67', Sorto C. 🟨,
74', Herrera J. ↓, Bennett K. ↑,
77', Sorto C. ↓, Coronado R. ↑,
90', Moreno A. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
90+2', Gurr J. 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Paso won 1.

Recent performances by El Paso have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sacramento Republic is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

El Paso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, El Paso won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, El Paso won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:3. (average 1.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- El Paso Locomotive
USL Championship
16.08.25	El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Miami - El Paso Locomotive	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	El Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights	6:0 ✺
USL Cup
26.07.25	Union Omaha - El Paso Locomotive	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	El Paso Locomotive - Phoenix Rising	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTWWL
- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Cup
20.08.25	Loudoun United - Sacramento Republic	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
16.08.25	Sacramento Republic - Oakland Roots	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Sacramento Republic - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	San Antonio - Sacramento Republic	1:3 ✺
USL Cup
26.07.25	Spokane Velocity - Sacramento Republic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
12.07.25	Sacramento Republic - El Paso Locomotive	3:0
19.10.24	El Paso Locomotive - Sacramento Republic	2:1
14.08.24	Sacramento Republic - El Paso Locomotive	2:0
16.09.23	Sacramento Republic - El Paso Locomotive	1:0
11.03.23	El Paso Locomotive - Sacramento Republic	0:1
18.05.22	El Paso Locomotive - Sacramento Republic	1:0
12.03.22	Sacramento Republic - El Paso Locomotive	3:1

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