Match Info

Date: 9 October 2022, Sunday


	El Porvenir		Excursionistas

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.25	2
	3.5	3.25	1.93
	3.75	3.56	1.96
	3.1	3.25	2.05
	3.8	3.35	1.86	Watch
	3.5	3.3	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↓ (4.6)	3.33 ↓ (3.37)	1.96 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Porvenir
26.1%

Draw
27.4%

Excursionistas
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

27%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

26.9%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Porvenir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in El Porvenir's performance.

Excursionistas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Excursionistas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Porvenir than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with El Porvenir that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excursionistas than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Excursionistas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

El Porvenir - Excursionistas Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. El Porvenir will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Excursionistas will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for El Porvenir: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 19 and 5).

Last 5 head-to-head matches El Porvenir won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Excursionistas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Excursionistas is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches El Porvenir won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-11.

Including matches at home between the teams El Porvenir won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club El Porvenir
Argentinian Primera C
01.10.22	Liniers - El Porvenir	4:1 ✺
26.09.22	El Porvenir - Ferrocarril Midland	2:0 ✺
17.09.22	Deportivo Español - El Porvenir	3:1 ✺
13.09.22	El Porvenir - Central Córdoba de Rosario	0:0 ✺
09.09.22	Sportivo Italiano - El Porvenir	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 LWLTT
- CA Excursionistas
Argentinian Primera C
01.10.22	Excursionistas - San Martín de Burzaco	1:0 ✺
24.09.22	Real Pilar - Excursionistas	3:1 ✺
18.09.22	Excursionistas - General Lamadrid	2:0 ✺
14.09.22	Berazategui - Excursionistas	2:0 ✺
09.09.22	Excursionistas - Argentino de Merlo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
05.06.22	Excursionistas - El Porvenir	0:0
23.08.21	Excursionistas - El Porvenir	2:1
09.04.21	El Porvenir - Excursionistas	1:0
30.12.20	El Porvenir - Excursionistas	0:1
27.09.19	Excursionistas - El Porvenir	0:1
30.03.19	Excursionistas - El Porvenir	2:4
21.10.18	El Porvenir - Excursionistas	3:0

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