Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 7

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde (Spiesen-Elversberg)

Referee: Wagner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
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Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
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Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
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Portugal	DAZN / App
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Elversberg		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.7	3	Watch
	2.05	3.6	3.15	Watch
	2.24	3.75	3.21
	2.23	3.57	2.98	Watch
				Watch
	2.18	3.76	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↓ (2.32)	3.68 ↑ (3.65)	3.08 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elversberg
43.6%

Draw
25.7%

Holstein Kiel
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

25.2%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

23.8%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elversberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elversberg than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	9.1%	27.3%

Elversberg - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Elversberg will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Elversberg: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Elversberg (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Kristof N. (G) 30. Gyamerah J. 19. Pinckert L. 31. Rohr M. 43. Keidel F. 6. Conde A. 8. Poreba L. 25. Petkov L. 10. Conte B. 29. Zimmerschied T. 22. Ebnoutalib Y.	21. Krumrey J. (G) 26. Zec D. 5. Johansson C. 3. Komenda M. 11. Bernhardsson A. 15. Davidsen K. 24. Knudsen M. 47. Tolkin J. 20. Kapralik A. 10. Therkelsen J. 25. Muller M.
Substitutes
28. Boss T. (G) 11. Ceka J. 3. Le Joncour F. 14. Malanga J. 2. Mickelson N. 17. Schmahl F. 24. Schnellbacher L. 23. Sickinger C. 9. Stange O.	19. Harres P. 6. Ivezic M. 13. Nekic I. 29. Niehoff N. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Schwab S. 7. Skrzybski S. 39. Wagner R. 1. Weiner T. (G)
Coaches
Wagner V.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Muller M. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
46', Conde A. 🟨,
58', Therkelsen J. ↓, Skrzybski S. ↑,
64', Petkov L. 🟨,
65', Conde A. ↓, Schmahl F. ↑,
68', Schmahl F. 🟨,
69', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
76', Gyamerah J. ↓, Mickelson N. ↑,
76', Zimmerschied T. ↓, Malanga J. ↑,
76', Petkov L. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
81', Knudsen M. 🟨,
85', Knudsen M. ↓, Wagner R. ↑,
85', Kapralik A. ↓, Niehoff N. ↑,
86', Wagner R. 🟨,
90', Ebnoutalib Y. ↓, Schnellbacher L. ↑,
90+1', Stange O. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 0, Stange O. (Pen),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Promotion: ) and 9).

Elversberg is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Holstein Kiel is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Elversberg will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Elversberg: Dragon P. (Knee Injury) Pfeiffer L. (Foot Injury) Seifert L. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Cvjetinovic M. (Ankle Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Elversberg won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Elversberg won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Elversberg - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 39.67%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Elversberg
German 2 Bundesliga
20.09.25	Eintracht Braunschweig - Elversberg	1:4 ✺
14.09.25	Elversberg - Dynamo Dresden	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.25	Wehen Wiesbaden - Elversberg	0:2 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hertha Berlin - Elversberg	0:2 ✺
22.08.25	Elversberg - Kaiserslautern	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WTWWW
- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
21.09.25	Holstein Kiel - Karlsruher	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
30.08.25	Holstein Kiel - Hannover	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Greuther Fürth - Holstein Kiel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
16.03.24	Elversberg - Holstein Kiel	0:2
08.10.23	Holstein Kiel - Elversberg	1:1
German 3 Bundesliga
22.03.14	Elversberg - Holstein Kiel	0:0
28.09.13	Holstein Kiel - Elversberg	1:2

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