Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 1 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Rodrigues de Souza F. (Bra)


	Emelec		Defensa y Justicia

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.6
	2.8	3.05	2.63
	2.75	3.17	2.74
	2.7	3	2.55
	2.78	3.1	2.67	Watch
	2.65	3.15	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.36)	3.11 ↓ (3.18)	2.65 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
34.4%

Draw
30.2%

Defensa y Justicia
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

29.2%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

29.3%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Defensa y Justicia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensa y Justicia than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	36.4%	54.5%

Emelec - Defensa y Justicia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Defensa y Justicia will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Defensa y Justicia: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (C) 14. Caicedo R. 26. Leon F. 2. Leguizamon A. 24. Carabali B. 21. Cevallos J. 36. Valencia C. 15. Villalba C. 7. Sosa Samuel 19. Bryan Angulo 11. Garcia Cardozo D. G.	23. Bologna E. (C) 32. Sant'Anna A. 2. Malatini J. 25. Cardona T. 3. Soto A. 4. Tripichio N. 8. Lopez J. 19. Barbona D. 27. Solari S. 29. Fernandez N. 11. Togni G.
Substitutes
6. Agron B. 70. Borja Suarez R. A. 27. Carcelen Carabali M. A. 30. Chamba T. 17. Espinoza J. 3. Fara C. 13. Jhon Sanchez 16. Lastre E. 22. Mina F. (G) 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 10. Zapata A.	17. Alanis G. 12. Beron J. 26. Caceres D. 30. Castellani G. 7. Duarte M. 36. Echevarria F. 15. Escalante L. T. 22. Fiermarin C. (G) 18. Pratto L. 21. Ramos S. 9. Rios A. 35. Schamine F.
Coaches
Torres H.	Vaccari J.

Preview

1st leg.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Defensa y Justicia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Copa Sudamericana
19.07.23	Emelec - Sporting Cristal	0:0 ✺
12.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Emelec	0:1 ✺
28.06.23	Emelec - Danubio	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.06.23	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	3:2 ✺
12.06.23	Emelec - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWWLT
- Defensa y Justicia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.07.23	Unión Santa Fe - Defensa y Justicia	2:0 ✺
23.07.23	Defensa y Justicia - Sarmiento de Junín	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
19.07.23	Defensa y Justicia - Centro Español	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
14.07.23	Godoy Cruz - Defensa y Justicia	2:2 ✺
09.07.23	Defensa y Justicia - Lanús	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWTT

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