Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 19 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)


	Emelec		Sporting Cristal

	1	X	2
	1.73	4	4.5	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.5
	1.68	3.8	4.8
	1.74	3.8	4.8
	1.67	3.5	4.6
	1.72	3.78	4.85	Watch
	1.72	3.85	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.89)	3.78 ↑ (3.26)	4.64 ↑ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
54.9%

Draw
24.9%

Sporting Cristal
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

28.1%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

27.2%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Emelec's performance.

Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Emelec - Sporting Cristal Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Emelec will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Emelec: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:6

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (C) 14. Caicedo R. 26. Leon F. 2. Leguizamon A. 24. Carabali B. 15. Villalba C. 36. Valencia C. 21. Cevallos J. 23. Bolanos M. 9. Cabeza A. 11. Garcia Cardozo D. G.	12. Solis R. (G) 4. Chavez G. 14. Ignacio 5. Lutiger R. 8. Sosa L. 19. Yotun Y. (C) 6. Pretell Panta J. E. 10. Hohberg A. 28. Pasquini N. 20. Grimaldo J. 9. Marlos Brenner
Substitutes
6. Agron B. 19. Bryan Angulo 30. Chamba T. 17. Espinoza J. 3. Fara C. 13. Jhon Sanchez 1. Napa G. (G) 70. Perez J. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 7. Sosa Samuel 10. Zapata A.	30. Alarcon J. 21. Ascues A. 11. Avila I. 7. Corozo W. 32. Diaz L. 13. Duarte A. (G) 29. Loyola N. 18. Medina F. 3. Otoya D. 38. Sanchez J. 50. Soto D. 25. Tavara G.
Coaches
Torres H.	Nunes T.

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Sporting Cristal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Emelec is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Emelec won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Emelec won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Copa Sudamericana
12.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Emelec	0:1 ✺
28.06.23	Emelec - Danubio	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.06.23	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	3:2 ✺
12.06.23	Emelec - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.06.23	Emelec - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLTT
- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
15.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Carlos A. Mannucci	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
12.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Emelec	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
08.07.23	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	0:0 ✺
02.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.06.23	Fluminense - Sporting Cristal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
12.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Emelec	0:1
Club Friendly
30.01.19	Emelec - Sporting Cristal	3:0
21.01.14	Sporting Cristal - Emelec	1:2

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