Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 6

Date: 28 June 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)


	Emelec		Danubio

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	6.5	Watch
	1.55	4.1	5.75
	1.58	3.9	5.75
	1.54	4.06	6.39
	1.55	3.7	5.5
	1.56	4.15	5.6	Watch
	1.54	4	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.79)	3.99 ↑ (3.6)	5.87 ↑ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
60.5%

Draw
23.5%

Danubio
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

25.8%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

27.1%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Emelec's performance.

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Danubio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Emelec that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Danubio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	10.5%	10.5%

Emelec - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: Emelec will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Napa G. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 26. Leon F. 2. Leguizamon A. 24. Carabali B. 15. Villalba C. 21. Cevallos J. 16. Lastre E. 23. Bolanos M. 11. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 19. Bryan Angulo	1. Goicoechea M. (G) 2. Etchebarne S. 21. Rea M. 20. Ferreira L. 17. Haller R. 14. Millan J. 6. Sosa L. 34. Lewis K. 11. Gonzalez F. 29. Sarmiento J. 30. Fernandez S.
Substitutes
6. Agron B. 8. Alberti J. 30. Chamba T. 17. Espinoza J. 3. Fara C. 13. Jhon Sanchez 22. Mina F. (G) 70. Perez J. 36. Valencia C. 28. Wittle B.	26. Anasco M. 27. Arguello M. 32. Bermudez E. (G) 35. Martinicorena F. 10. May G. 25. Pintos I. 12. Rio J. (G) 8. Rodriguez R. 19. Romero S. 22. Saravia F. 5. Silva S. 9. Vera D.
Coaches
Torres H.	Conde E.

Preview

Recent matches Emelec is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Danubio is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Emelec could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Emelec is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Emelec won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.06.23	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	3:2 ✺
12.06.23	Emelec - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.06.23	Emelec - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.06.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	1:3 ✺
29.05.23	Emelec - Guayaquil City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LTTWT
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.06.23	La Luz - Danubio	0:2 ✺
16.06.23	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.06.23	Danubio - Huracán Buenos Aires	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.06.23	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.05.23	Danubio - Guaraní Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
05.04.23	Danubio - Emelec	2:0

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