Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - PLAY OFFS - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 12 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alberto Gallardo (Lima)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports


	Sporting Cristal		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.9	Watch
	2.37	3.2	2.95
	2.23	3.35	3.15
	2.55	3.19	2.97
	2.35	3	2.9
	2.44	3.13	3.02	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.17)	3.14 ↓ (3.16)	2.97 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sporting Cristal
38.4%

Draw
29.9%

Emelec
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

29.5%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

28.6%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sporting Cristal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting Cristal than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sporting Cristal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	20%	13.3%

Sporting Cristal - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Sporting Cristal will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). Emelec will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting Cristal: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Solis R. (G) 15. Lora J. 4. Chavez G. 14. Ignacio 29. Loyola N. 16. Castillo J. 6. Pretell Panta J. E. 19. Yotun Y. 20. Grimaldo J. 9. Marlos Brenner 10. Hohberg A.	12. Ortiz P. (G) 14. Caicedo R. 26. Leon F. 2. Leguizamon A. 24. Carabali B. 15. Villalba C. 36. Valencia C. 23. Bolanos M. 21. Cevallos J. 11. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 9. Cabeza A.
Substitutes
30. Alarcon J. 21. Ascues A. 11. Avila I. 7. Corozo W. 32. Diaz L. 13. Duarte A. (G) 5. Lutiger R. 3. Otoya D. 28. Pasquini N. 38. Sanchez J. 8. Sosa L. 25. Tavara G.	6. Agron B. 8. Alberti J. 30. Chamba T. 17. Espinoza J. 3. Fara C. 13. Jhon Sanchez 1. Napa G. (G) 70. Perez J. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 7. Sosa Samuel 10. Zapata A.
Coaches
Nunes T.	Torres H.

Preview

1st leg.

Sporting Cristal is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Emelec is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sporting Cristal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Sporting Cristal have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Sporting Cristal won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Sporting Cristal won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Cristal
Peruvian Liga 1
08.07.23	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	0:0 ✺
02.07.23	Sporting Cristal - Unión Comercio	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.06.23	Fluminense - Sporting Cristal	1:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
22.06.23	Cantolao - Sporting Cristal	0:2 ✺
11.06.23	Alianza Atlético - Sporting Cristal	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 TWTWT
- Emelec
Copa Sudamericana
28.06.23	Emelec - Danubio	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
18.06.23	Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec	3:2 ✺
12.06.23	Emelec - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.06.23	Emelec - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.06.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.01.19	Emelec - Sporting Cristal	3:0
21.01.14	Sporting Cristal - Emelec	1:2

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