Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 5

Date: 7 June 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio George Capwell (Guayaquil)

Referee: Rodrigues de Souza F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4


	Emelec		Guaraní Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	7	Watch
	1.49	4.1	6.5
	1.49	4.3	6.25
	1.5	4.33	6.63
	1.47	3.8	6.5
	1.49	4.15	6.75	Watch
	1.46	4.2	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (2.11)	4.17 ↑ (3.21)	6.58 ↑ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emelec
63.2%

Draw
22.5%

Guaraní Asuncion
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

29.1%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

30.6%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Emelec's performance.

Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guaraní Asuncion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-16.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Emelec that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guaraní Asuncion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88%	4%	8%

Emelec - Guaraní Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: Emelec will win (22 of 25 users predict this - 88%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.26% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Ortiz P. (G) 3. Fara C. 26. Leon F. 2. Leguizamon A. 24. Carabali B. 15. Villalba C. 21. Cevallos J. 7. Sosa Samuel 23. Bolanos M. 11. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 19. Bryan Angulo	1. Munoz R. (C) 2. Raul Caceres 24. Caceres M. 32. Cantero A. 3. Moya J. 21. Dorrego H. 5. Gil Romero G. 20. Rios R. D. 28. Benitez B. 9. Santander F. 7. Camacho N.
Substitutes
6. Agron B. 8. Alberti J. 14. Caicedo R. 30. Chamba T. 18. Cruz C. 13. Jhon Sanchez 16. Lastre E. 22. Mina F. (G) 70. Perez J. 4. Quintero J. 36. Valencia C.	26. Amarilla R. 13. Barbotte A. 22. Borja E. 37. Clar W. 40. Contrera A. 10. Farina L. 17. Fernandez B. 36. Martinez L. 8. Moreira E. 12. Rodriguez M. (G) 27. Roman Torales F. J. 25. Sanchez A. (G)
Coaches
Rondelli M.	Lopez R.

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Emelec is absolute favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Emelec won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
03.06.23	Barcelona Guayaquil - Emelec	1:3 ✺
29.05.23	Emelec - Guayaquil City	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.05.23	Huracán Buenos Aires - Emelec	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.05.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec	3:2 ✺
14.05.23	Emelec - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WTTLT
- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.06.23	Guaraní Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
29.05.23	Guaireña - Guaraní Asuncion	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.05.23	Danubio - Guaraní Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
22.05.23	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	0:2 ✺
17.05.23	Tacuary - Guaraní Asuncion	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
03.05.23	Guaraní Asuncion - Emelec	1:1

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