Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 15

Date: 2 June 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Turkey	S Sport+
Usa	Paramount+


	Vinotinto		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.5	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.3
	1.92	3.5	3.65	Watch
	1.92	3.65	3.93
	1.89	3.63	3.83	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.4
	1.88	3.59	3.85	Watch
	1.92	3.5	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.73)	3.52 ↓ (3.6)	3.64 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
48.1%

Draw
26.4%

Libertad Loja
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

25.8%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

25.3%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.

Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vinotinto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Loja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	17.6%	17.6%

Vinotinto - Libertad Loja Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vinotinto: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vinotinto (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Libertad (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Vinotinto (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Libertad (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mitre L. (G) 36. Nardelli G. 4. Aguirre A. (C) 2. Iriarte I. 13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 15. Larotonda C. 5. Coba K. 11. Mina A. 8. Caicedo J. 9. Molina N. 17. Monti R.	90. Bores E. (G) 25. Bolanos D. 4. Biojo R. 3. Becerra K. 6. Quinonez O. 28. Montano J. 7. Zambrano I. (C) 8. Ayovi W. 70. Quinonez Y. 37. Arboleda C. 21. Quinonez A.
Substitutes
23. Gomez L. 26. Hernandez E. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 10. Luna D. 40. Mera F. 6. Ona C. 18. Ushina K.	9. Avila D. 54. Bardales W. 30. Bravo J. 19. Caicedo E. 14. Caicedo N. 23. Gruezo C. 50. Humanante J. 11. Lastre E. 24. Monaga J. 45. Nazareno L. (G) 10. Verges J.
Coaches
Grabowski J.	Leon J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Arboleda C. (Pen),
45+1', Ayovi W. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Caicedo J. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
62', Ayovi W. ↓, Caicedo N. ↑,
62', Quinonez A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
65', Nardelli G. 🟨,
70', Molina N. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
75', Larotonda C. 🟨,
80', Carrasco Bonilla M. A. ↓, Gomez L. ↑,
83', Arboleda C. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
84', 1 - 0, Monti R. (Pen),
88', Montano J. ↓, Verges J. ↑,
89', Mina A. ↓, Ushina K. ↑,
89', Mera F. ↓, Hernandez E. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Vinotinto has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Libertad is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vinotinto is the team to beat.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.05.25	Manta - Vinotinto	2:2 ✺
18.05.25	Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle	1:3 ✺
12.05.25	El Nacional - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
04.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Vinotinto - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.05.25	Libertad Loja - Deportivo Macará	0:1 ✺
19.05.25	LDU Quito - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	Libertad Loja - Delfín	0:1 ✺
05.05.25	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	2:0 ✺
28.04.25	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LTLLW

Vinotinto - Libertad Loja: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide