Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 16

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Vinotinto		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.5	1.8	Watch
	3.6	3.2	1.87
	3.65	3.3	1.95	Watch
	4.26	3.59	1.85
	3.67	3.27	1.97	Watch
	3.8	3.25	1.95
	4.47	3.48	1.79	Watch
	3.65	3.3	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.95 ↑ (3.23)	3.36 ↑ (3.16)	1.89 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
23.5%

Draw
27.6%

LDU Quito
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

29.2%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

28%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vinotinto's form might have worsened.

LDU Quito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting LDU Quito's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for LDU Quito, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Vinotinto - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). LDU Quito will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for LDU Quito: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): LDU Quito will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Mitre L. (G) 2. Iriarte I. 4. Aguirre A. (C) 36. Nardelli G. 23. Gomez L. 5. Coba K. 15. Larotonda C. 11. Mina A. 10. Luna D. 18. Ushina K. 17. Monti R.	1. Valle G. (G) 14. Quintero J. (C) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 3. Mina R. 33. Quinonez L. 5. Minda K. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 20. Cornejo F. 10. Alvarado A. 9. Alzugaray L. 11. Estrada M.
Substitutes
8. Caicedo J. 13. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 26. Hernandez E. 52. Julio M. 1. Lopez J. (G) 7. Lugo J. 40. Mera F. 9. Molina N. 6. Ona C.	24. Cabeza A. 27. Caicedo M. 21. Castillo E. 31. de la Cruz D. I. 23. Diaz M. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 26. Duran P. 2. Erique Villigua Y. H. 8. Gruezo C. 7. Pastran L. 32. Rodriguez J. 15. Villamil G.
Coaches
Grabowski J.	Hurtado E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 1 - 0, Monti R. ⚽,
53', Mina R. 🟨,
61', 1 - 1, Ramirez Leon B. J. ⚽,
69', Estrada M. ↓, Cabeza A. ↑,
69', Cornejo F. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,
79', Quintero J. ↓, de la Cruz D. I. ↑,
79', Alzugaray L. ↓, Villamil G. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Cabeza A. ⚽,
83', Luna D. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
83', Monti R. ↓, Lugo J. ↑,
88', Ushina K. ↓, Mera F. ↑,
88', Larotonda C. ↓, Julio M. ↑,
89', Ramirez Leon B. J. ↓, Gruezo C. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).

Vinotinto is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

LDU Quito's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

LDU Quito will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.06.25	Vinotinto - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
24.05.25	Manta - Vinotinto	2:2 ✺
18.05.25	Vinotinto - Independiente del Valle	1:3 ✺
12.05.25	El Nacional - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
04.05.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WTLLL
- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
31.05.25	LDU Quito - Técnico Universitario	3:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.05.25	LDU Quito - Central Córdoba	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
24.05.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - LDU Quito	3:1 ✺
19.05.25	LDU Quito - Libertad Loja	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.25	Flamengo - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.02.25	LDU Quito - Vinotinto	0:0

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