Match Info

Date: 2 October 2022, Sunday

Location: De Oude Meerdijk (Emmen)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Emmen		Heerenveen

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.45
	2.8	3.5	2.43
	2.85	3.25	2.45
	2.9	3.49	2.52
	2.8	3.25	2.45	Watch
	2.84	3.44	2.39	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (3.07)	3.35 ↑ (3.33)	2.46 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emmen
33.2%

Draw
28.3%

Heerenveen
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

28.3%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

28.2%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Heerenveen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emmen than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.1%	21.7%	52.2%

Emmen - Heerenveen Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Emmen will win (votes: 12 - 26.1%). Heerenveen will win (votes: 24 - 52.2%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heerenveen: 37.8% – 66.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs)).

Emmen has the most likely position - 18 (13.25%), has project points - 34, has currently - 4, has a chance of relegated (36%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Heerenveen has the most likely position - 7 (13.71%), has project points - 47, has currently - 12, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 46, small importance 27, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Emmen won 2.

Emmen is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Heerenveen is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Emmen: Guclu M. (Injury) Kieftenbeld M. (Injury) Lieder M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Emmen: van Dorp K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Heerenveen: Andersson A. (Injury) Haye T. (Injury) Kohlert M. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Emmen won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Emmen won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Emmen
Dutch Eredivisie
18.09.22	Go Ahead Eagles - Emmen	2:0 ✺
10.09.22	Excelsior - Emmen	2:1 ✺
04.09.22	Emmen - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
27.08.22	Feyenoord - Emmen	4:0 ✺
20.08.22	Emmen - Utrecht	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLLW
- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
18.09.22	Heerenveen - Twente	2:1 ✺
10.09.22	Ajax - Heerenveen	5:0 ✺
04.09.22	Heerenveen - NEC Nijmegen	0:0 ✺
27.08.22	Heerenveen - Fortuna Sittard	2:1 ✺
20.08.22	Vitesse - Heerenveen	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
13.05.21	Emmen - Heerenveen	3:1
Dutch KNVB Beker
20.01.21	Emmen - Heerenveen	1:2
Dutch Eredivisie
24.10.20	Heerenveen - Emmen	4:0
17.08.19	Emmen - Heerenveen	2:0
Club Friendly
03.05.19	Heerenveen - Emmen	3:0
Dutch Eredivisie
07.04.19	Emmen - Heerenveen	2:0
04.11.18	Heerenveen - Emmen	1:1

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