Match Info

Serie A - Round 36

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Fabbri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Optus Sport
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	DAZN 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Sport 1
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Sports, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV4
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Futbol TV, Setanta Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Onefootball


	Empoli		Parma

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.4
	2.28	3.05	3.45
	2.33	3.14	3.61
	2.3	3.12	3.57	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.3
	2.36	3.18	3.61	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.54)	3.16 ↓ (3.32)	3.49 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
42.3%

Draw
30.3%

Parma
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.5%

31%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Parma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.1%	16.9%	16.9%

Empoli - Parma Predictions

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 38 - 66.7%). Parma will win (votes: 9 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 17.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Empoli: 54.5% – 78.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Parma (2.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Empoli (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Parma (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Parma (1.61) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Empoli will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 21 - 70%). Parma (votes: 3 - 10%). Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 35. Marianucci L. 34. Ismajli A. 21. Viti M. 11. Gyasi E. 5. Grassi A. (C) 6. Henderson L. 3. Pezzella G. 10. Fazzini J. 13. Cacace L. 99. Esposito Se.	31. Suzuki Z. (G) 15. Del Prato E. (C) 46. Leoni G. 5. Valenti L. 20. Hainaut A. 19. Sohm S. 16. Keita M. 17. Ondrejka J. 14. Valeri E. 32. Pellegrino M. 13. Bonny A.
Substitutes
8. Anjorin F. 98. Brancolini F. (G) 89. Campaniello T. 22. De Sciglio M. 24. Ebuehi T. 2. Goglichidze S. 90. Konate I. 20. Kovalenko V. 7. Sambia J. 12. Seghetti J. (G) 1. Silvestri M. (G) 17. Solbakken O. 31. Tosto L.	11. Almqvist P. 4. Balogh B. 7. Benedyczak A. 23. Camara D. 39. Circati A. 40. Corvi E. (G) 30. Djuric M. 61. Haj Mohamed A. 27. Hernani 18. Lovik M. 98. Man D. 33. Marcone R. (G) 65. Plicco E.
Coaches
D'Aversa R.	Chivu C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Fazzini J. ⚽, Henderson L. (A),
22', Valenti L. 🟨,
31', Valenti L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Ondrejka J. ↓, Camara D. ↑,
66', Pellegrino M. ↓, Djuric M. ↑,
66', Sohm S. ↓, Hernani ↑,
71', Grassi A. ↓, Anjorin F. ↑,
73', Cacace L. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Djuric M. ⚽, Hernani (A),
77', Cacace L. ↓, Sambia J. ↑,
77', Bonny A. ↓, Balogh B. ↑,
84', Esposito Se. ↓, Konate I. ↑,
84', Henderson L. ↓, Solbakken O. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Anjorin F. ⚽, Konate I. (A),
88', Viti M. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 2.

Empoli is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Parma has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Empoli might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Empoli: Haas N. (Knee Injury) Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Maleh Y. (Knee Injury) Pellegri P. (Knee Injury) Sazonov S. (Knee Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Parma: Bernabe A. (Thigh Injury) Cancellieri M. (Thigh Injury) Charpentier G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Estevez N. (Thigh Injury) Kowalski M. (Knee Injury) Mihaila V. (Thigh Injury) Osorio Y. (Surgery) Vogliacco A. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:9. (average 1.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Empoli won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie A
04.05.25	Empoli - Lazio	0:1 ✺
27.04.25	Fiorentina - Empoli	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
24.04.25	Bologna - Empoli	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.04.25	Empoli - Venezia	2:2 ✺
14.04.25	Napoli - Empoli	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
03.05.25	Parma - Como	0:1 ✺
28.04.25	Lazio - Parma	2:2 ✺
23.04.25	Parma - Juventus	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0 ✺
05.04.25	Parma - Inter Milan	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.6 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
27.10.24	Parma - Empoli	1:1
Club Friendly
06.09.20	Parma - Empoli	0:2
Italian Serie A
02.03.19	Empoli - Parma	3:3
30.09.18	Parma - Empoli	1:0
Italian Serie B
17.02.18	Empoli - Parma	4:0
19.09.17	Parma - Empoli	1:2
Club Friendly
18.08.17	Parma - Empoli	1:1

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