Match Info

Serie A - Round 34

Date: 27 April 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football
Albania	15:00	Tring Sport 1, Tring Sport 2
Argentina	10:00	Disney+
Armenia	17:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	23:00	beIN Connect, Optus Sport
Austria	15:00	DAZN
Belgium	15:00	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	10:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	16:00	Max Sport 4
Chile	09:00	Disney+
China	21:00	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	08:00	Disney+
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	16:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Denmark	15:00	TV2 Play
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Germany	15:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	16:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	21:00	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	15:00	Net4+
India	18:30	GXR World
Indonesia	20:00	Vidio
Israel	16:00	ONE Sport 2, Sport 3
Italy	15:00	214 DAZN Zona, 215 DAZN Zona, DAZN 2, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	22:00	DAZN Japan
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	07:00	Disney+, ESPN
New Zealand	01:00	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	15:00	VG+
Peru	08:00	Disney+
Poland	15:00	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	14:00	Sport TV3
Romania	16:00	Prima Sport PPV 3
Russia	16:00	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	16:00	STC TV
Serbia	15:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 7
South Africa	15:00	SuperSport Football
Spain	15:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	15:00	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tanzania	16:00	Azam Sports 4
Turkey	16:00	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	16:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United Arab Emirates	17:00	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Uruguay	10:00	Disney+
Usa	09:00	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	09:00	Disney+
Vietnam	20:00	ON Plus
International	13:00	Disney+, Onefootball


	Fiorentina		Empoli

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.7	Watch
	1.82	3.5	4.6
	2.08	3.2	3.9	Watch
	2.16	3.17	4.22
	2.1	3.14	4.16	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4.33
	2.1	3.33	3.94	Watch
	2.1	3.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.73)	3.26 ↓ (3.68)	4.11 ↓ (5.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
47.1%

Draw
29.5%

Empoli
23.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.5%

26%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

25%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.

Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Empoli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Fiorentina - Empoli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Empoli (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Empoli (1.84) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fiorentina will win (48 of 59 users predict this - 81.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.42% – 91.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fiorentina will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Fiorentina (votes: 18 - 66.7%). Empoli (votes: 9 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. de Gea D. (G) 18. Mari P. 5. Pongracic M. 8. Mandragora R. 90. Folorunsho M. 29. Adli Y. 32. Cataldi D. 6. Ranieri L. (C) 21. Gosens R. 10. Gudmundsson A. 9. Beltran L.	23. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 2. Goglichidze S. 34. Ismajli A. 21. Viti M. 11. Gyasi E. 8. Anjorin F. 5. Grassi A. (C) 3. Pezzella G. 17. Solbakken O. 10. Fazzini J. 99. Esposito Se.
Substitutes
63. Caprini M. 15. Comuzzo P. 44. Fagioli N. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 22. Moreno M. 27. Ndour C. 65. Parisi F. 24. Richardson A. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 17. Zaniolo N.	41. Asmussen A. 36. Bacci J. 98. Brancolini F. (G) 89. Campaniello T. 29. Colombo L. 22. De Sciglio M. 6. Henderson L. 90. Konate I. 20. Kovalenko V. 35. Marianucci L. 7. Sambia J. 12. Seghetti J. (G) 1. Silvestri M. (G) 31. Tosto L.
Coaches
Palladino R.	D'Aversa R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Adli Y. ⚽, Gudmundsson A. (A),
16', Beltran L. 🟨,
20', Anjorin F. 🟨,
25', 2 - 0, Mandragora R. ⚽, Adli Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Solbakken O. ↓, Colombo L. ↑,
46', Anjorin F. ↓, Henderson L. ↑,
53', Henderson L. 🟨,
55', Ranieri L. 🟨,
57', 2 - 1, Fazzini J. ⚽, Goglichidze S. (A),
60', Ranieri L. ↓, Comuzzo P. ↑,
60', Adli Y. ↓, Richardson A. ↑,
70', Folorunsho M. ↓, Parisi F. ↑,
70', Beltran L. ↓, Zaniolo N. ↑,
77', Grassi A. ↓, Kovalenko V. ↑,
78', Mandragora R. 🟨,
82', Gudmundsson A. ↓, Fagioli N. ↑,
82', Fazzini J. ↓, Bacci J. ↑,
89', Goglichidze S. ↓, Sambia J. ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 8 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fiorentina won 0.

Fiorentina is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Empoli is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fiorentina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fiorentina is a favorite.

There will not play in Fiorentina: Bove E. (Heart Problems) Dodo (Surgery)

There will not play in Empoli: Cacace L. (Yellow Cards) Haas N. (Knee Injury) Kouame C. (Knee Injury) Maleh Y. (Knee Injury) Pellegri P. (Knee Injury) Sazonov S. (Knee Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fiorentina: Colpani A. (Foot Injury) Kean M. (Personal Reasons)

There are questionable in Empoli: Ismajli A. (Thigh Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Fiorentina won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 20:20 (average 1.3:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Fiorentina won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:12 (average 1.4:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
Italian Serie A
23.04.25	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.04.25	Fiorentina - Celje	2:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
13.04.25	Fiorentina - Parma	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
10.04.25	Celje - Fiorentina	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
05.04.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTTWT
- FC Empoli
Coppa Italia
24.04.25	Bologna - Empoli	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
20.04.25	Empoli - Venezia	2:2 ✺
14.04.25	Napoli - Empoli	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Empoli - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
01.04.25	Empoli - Bologna	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
04.12.24	Fiorentina - Empoli	2:3 penalties
Italian Serie A
29.09.24	Empoli - Fiorentina	0:0
18.02.24	Empoli - Fiorentina	1:1
23.10.23	Fiorentina - Empoli	0:2
19.02.23	Fiorentina - Empoli	1:1
21.08.22	Empoli - Fiorentina	0:0
03.04.22	Fiorentina - Empoli	1:0

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