Match Info

Date: 7 November 2021, Sunday


	Erzgebirge Aue		Heidenheim

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	2.25	Watch
	3.4	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2.16
	3.2	3.35	2.19
	3.35	3.48	2.26
	3.25	3.25	2.15
	3.18	3.56	2.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (3.18)	3.41 ↑ (3.25)	2.19 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
29%

Draw
27.8%

Heidenheim
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

28.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

21.1%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Heidenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Erzgebirge Aue that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Heidenheim could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Erzgebirge Aue - Heidenheim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 9).

Aue has the most likely position - 17 (23.54%), has project points - 32, has currently - 8, has a good chance of relegated (54%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Heidenheim has the most likely position - 9 (8.96%), has project points - 48, has currently - 18, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a small chance of promoted (7%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Heidenheim will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Aue won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 10-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
30.10.21	Hannover - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
22.10.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt	1:0 ✺
16.10.21	Karlsruher - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
01.10.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
24.09.21	Jahn Regensburg - Erzgebirge Aue	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TWLTL
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German 2 Bundesliga
29.10.21	Heidenheim - Schalke 04	1:0 ✺
23.10.21	Nürnberg - Heidenheim	4:0 ✺
16.10.21	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	2:4 ✺
01.10.21	Werder Bremen - Heidenheim	3:0 ✺
24.09.21	Heidenheim - Darmstadt	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
13.02.21	Heidenheim - Erzgebirge Aue	2:0
18.10.20	Erzgebirge Aue - Heidenheim	2:1
31.05.20	Heidenheim - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0
02.11.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Heidenheim	1:1
12.04.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Heidenheim	0:1
04.11.18	Heidenheim - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
16.12.17	Erzgebirge Aue - Heidenheim	1:1

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