Match Info

Date: 18 December 2021, Saturday


	Erzgebirge Aue		Nürnberg

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.5	2.2	Watch
	3.2	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.35	2.16
	3.25	3.3	2.18
	3.37	3.43	2.27
	3.4	3.2	2.1
	3.2	3.48	2.22	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↑ (2.72)	3.39 ↓ (3.44)	2.18 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
28.9%

Draw
27.8%

Nürnberg
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

27.3%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

19.8%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Erzgebirge Aue's form might have worsened.

Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nürnberg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+18.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Erzgebirge Aue, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-15.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nürnberg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Erzgebirge Aue - Nürnberg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 7).

Aue has the most likely position - 17 (33.02%), has project points - 32, has currently - 14, has a good chance of relegated (58%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Nürnberg has the most likely position - 7 (10.54%), has project points - 49, has currently - 27, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Aue could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nürnberg will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Aue won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 11-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
12.12.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Dynamo Dresden	0:1 ✺
03.12.21	Werder Bremen - Erzgebirge Aue	4:0 ✺
27.11.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Darmstadt	1:2 ✺
20.11.21	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2 ✺
07.11.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLLWW
- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
10.12.21	Schalke 04 - Nürnberg	4:1 ✺
04.12.21	Nürnberg - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
28.11.21	Nürnberg - St. Pauli	2:3 ✺
19.11.21	Sandhausen - Nürnberg	1:2 ✺
05.11.21	Nürnberg - Werder Bremen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
25.07.21	Nürnberg - Erzgebirge Aue	0:0
20.04.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Nürnberg	0:1
20.12.20	Nürnberg - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
22.05.20	Nürnberg - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1
18.10.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Nürnberg	4:3
02.02.18	Nürnberg - Erzgebirge Aue	4:1
26.08.17	Erzgebirge Aue - Nürnberg	3:1

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