Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 9

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Max-Morlock-Stadion (Nuremberg)

Referee: Gansloweit T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, WOW
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
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Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
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Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 3
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Nürnberg		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	2.63	Watch
	2.48	3.35	2.62	Watch
	2.54	3.52	2.84
	2.63	3.11	2.77	Watch
	2.49	3.45	2.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.7)	3.31 ↓ (3.53)	2.7 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nürnberg
37.1%

Draw
28.3%

Holstein Kiel
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

26.8%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

27.5%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	6.7%	40%

Nürnberg - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Nürnberg will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 6 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nürnberg: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Nürnberg (votes: 1 - 25%). Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Holstein Kiel (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Nürnberg (votes: 1 - 20%). Holstein Kiel (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Reichert J. (G) 15. Drexler T. 4. Gruber F. 24. Lochoshvili L. 21. Yilmaz B. 25. Becker F. O. 6. Markhiev A. 20. Demba P. 10. Justvan J. 18. Lubach R. 23. Zoma M. A.	21. Krumrey J. (G) 26. Zec D. 5. Johansson C. 3. Komenda M. 11. Bernhardsson A. 24. Knudsen M. 15. Davidsen K. 23. Rosenboom L. 20. Kapralik A. 7. Skrzybski S. 19. Harres P.
Substitutes
7. Biron M. 33. Grimaldi A. 32. Janisch T. 44. Karafiat O. 31. Knoche R. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 41. Porstner E. 11. Stepanov A. 9. Telalovic S.	6. Ivezic M. 25. Muller M. 13. Nekic I. 29. Niehoff N. 2. Roslyng F. 22. Schwab S. 10. Therkelsen J. 39. Wagner R. 1. Weiner T. (G)
Coaches
Klose M.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Zoma M. A. ⚽, Justvan J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Harres P. ↓, Therkelsen J. ↑,
59', Demba P. ↓, Grimaldi A. ↑,
62', Rosenboom L. ↓, Muller M. ↑,
62', Davidsen K. ↓, Schwab S. ↑,
68', Drexler T. 🟨,
69', Kapralik A. ↓, Niehoff N. ↑,
75', Gruber F. 🟨,
76', Zoma M. A. ↓, Biron M. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Johansson C. ⚽, Bernhardsson A. (A),
87', Zec D. 🟨,
89', Skrzybski S. ↓, Wagner R. ↑,
90+1', Markhiev A. 🟨,
90+4', Justvan J. ↓, Janisch T. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone 2. Bundesliga (Relegation) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nürnberg won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Nürnberg: Buchmann T. (Foot Injury) Koudossou H. (Ankle Injury) Maboulou N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Cvjetinovic M. (Ankle Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nürnberg: Markhiev A. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Nürnberg won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:21. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Nürnberg won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 1.5:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
03.10.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Nürnberg	2:3 ✺
28.09.25	Nürnberg - Hertha Berlin	0:3 ✺
20.09.25	Nürnberg - Bochum	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Karlsruher - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
29.08.25	Nürnberg - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WLWLT
- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
04.10.25	Holstein Kiel - Darmstadt	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Elversberg - Holstein Kiel	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Holstein Kiel - Karlsruher	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
06.04.24	Nürnberg - Holstein Kiel	0:4
29.10.23	Holstein Kiel - Nürnberg	0:2
15.04.23	Holstein Kiel - Nürnberg	2:1
09.10.22	Nürnberg - Holstein Kiel	2:3
08.05.22	Holstein Kiel - Nürnberg	3:0
04.12.21	Nürnberg - Holstein Kiel	2:1
27.04.21	Nürnberg - Holstein Kiel	1:1

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