Match Info

Date: 27 November 2021, Saturday


	Erzgebirge Aue		Darmstadt

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.9	Watch
	4	3.8	1.85	Watch
	3.65	3.75	1.92
	3.6	3.65	1.94
	3.84	3.95	1.94
	3.7	3.6	1.88	Watch
	3.68	3.88	1.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.75 ↑ (3.18)	3.75 ↑ (3.4)	1.91 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
25.2%

Draw
25.2%

Darmstadt
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

27.4%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.1%

20.7%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Darmstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Darmstadt's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Darmstadt than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Darmstadt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Erzgebirge Aue - Darmstadt Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Promotion)).

Aue has the most likely position - 16 (16.95%), has project points - 36, has currently - 14, has a chance of relegated (33%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Darmstadt has the most likely position - 1 (22.01%), has project points - 59, has currently - 26, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of promoted (44%), has a chance of win league (22%).

Aue is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Darmstadt is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Darmstadt will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Aue won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 8-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
20.11.21	Hansa Rostock - Erzgebirge Aue	1:2 ✺
07.11.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
30.10.21	Hannover - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
22.10.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Ingolstadt	1:0 ✺
16.10.21	Karlsruher - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 WWTWL
- SV Darmstadt 98
German 2 Bundesliga
20.11.21	Darmstadt - St. Pauli	4:0 ✺
07.11.21	Schalke 04 - Darmstadt	2:4 ✺
29.10.21	Darmstadt - Nürnberg	2:0 ✺
23.10.21	Holstein Kiel - Darmstadt	1:1 ✺
17.10.21	Darmstadt - Werder Bremen	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
13.03.21	Darmstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	4:1
22.11.20	Erzgebirge Aue - Darmstadt	3:0
26.05.20	Erzgebirge Aue - Darmstadt	1:3
25.10.19	Darmstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
19.05.19	Darmstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
16.12.18	Erzgebirge Aue - Darmstadt	2:2
13.05.18	Darmstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0

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