Match Info

Premier League - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool)

Referee: Hooper S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Everton		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.8
	2.37	3.3	2.95
	2.52	3.3	2.9
	2.43	3.44	3.02
	2.63	2.42	3.69	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.88
	2.72	3.13	2.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.48)	3.11 ↓ (3.38)	3.01 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Everton
37.5%

Draw
30.7%

Aston Villa
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

28.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

29%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Everton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Everton than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	22.9%	27.1%

Everton - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Everton will win (votes: 24 - 50%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 13 - 27.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 22.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Everton: 35.9% – 64.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Everton (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Aston Villa (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Everton (1.86) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Everton (1.43) (votes: 1 - 33.3%) .

AH +0.5 - Aston Villa (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Everton (votes: 9 - 36%). Aston Villa (votes: 12 - 48%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pickford J. (G) 15. O'Brien J. 6. Tarkowski J. (C) 5. Keane M. 37. Garner J. 42. Iroegbunam T. 27. Gueye I. 10. Ndiaye I. 22. Dewsbury-Hall K. 18. Grealish J. 9. Beto	23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 12. Digne L. 26. Bogarde L. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
24. Alcaraz C. 39. Aznou A. 11. Barry T. 23. Coleman S. 20. Dibling T. 7. McNeil D. 2. Patterson N. 34. Rohl M. 12. Travers M. (G)	40. Bizot M. (G) 9. Elliott H. 29. Guessand E. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 17. Malen D. 52. Proctor S. (G) 19. Sancho J. 14. Torres P.
Coaches
Moyes D.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Cash M. 🟨,
45+1', Iroegbunam T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tielemans Y. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,
57', Digne L. 🟨,
65', Dewsbury-Hall K. 🟨,
66', Iroegbunam T. ↓, Rohl M. ↑,
69', Grealish J. 🟨,
70', Buendia E. 🟨,
71', Buendia E. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
75', Beto ↓, Barry T. ↑,
83', Watkins O. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
83', Bogarde L. ↓, Lindelof V. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton won 1.

Everton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aston Villa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Everton: Branthwaite J. (Hamstring Injury) Patterson N. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Garcia A. (Knock)

There are questionable in Everton: Aznou A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness) Cash M. (Knock) Kamara B. (Hamstring Injury) Onana A. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Everton won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 26:30. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Everton won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.4:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Everton
English Premier League
30.08.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Everton	2:3 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.25	Everton - Mansfield Town	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
24.08.25	Everton - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:0 ✺
18.08.25	Leeds United - Everton	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Everton - Roma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWLL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
31.08.25	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	0:3 ✺
23.08.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Villarreal - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Aston Villa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
15.01.25	Everton - Aston Villa	0:1
14.09.24	Aston Villa - Everton	3:2
14.01.24	Everton - Aston Villa	0:0
English League Cup
27.09.23	Aston Villa - Everton	1:2
English Premier League
20.08.23	Aston Villa - Everton	4:0
25.02.23	Everton - Aston Villa	0:2
13.08.22	Aston Villa - Everton	2:1

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