Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Brentford Community Stadium (London)

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brentford		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.9	1.91	Watch
	2.7	3.6	2.45
	3.55	3.7	1.98	Watch
	2.85	3.65	2.38
	10.67	4.62	1.32	Watch
	3.54	3.95	1.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.47 ↑ (2.83)	3.9 ↑ (3.58)	2 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brentford
22.9%

Draw
26.2%

Aston Villa
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

26.3%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

27.1%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brentford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brentford's form might have worsened.

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aston Villa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brentford than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brentford, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aston Villa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87%	4.3%	8.7%

Brentford - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Brentford will win (votes: 20 - 90.9%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brentford: 78.9% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Brentford (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Aston Villa (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Brentford will win (12 of 12 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Brentford (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Aston Villa (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Valdimarsson H. R. (G) 20. Ajer K. 4. van den Berg S. 43. Arthur B. 2. Hickey A. 15. Onyeka F. 27. Janelt V. (C) 17. Milambo A. 3. Henry R. 19. Ouattara Da. 14. Carvalho F.	40. Bizot M. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 22. Maatsen I. 7. McGinn J. (C) 26. Bogarde L. 29. Guessand E. 9. Elliott H. 19. Sancho J. 17. Malen D.
Substitutes
22. Collins N. 24. Damsgaard M. 8. Jensen M. 33. Kayode M. 1. Kelleher C. (G) 23. Lewis-Potter K. 11. Nelson R. 7. Schade K. 18. Yarmolyuk Y.	54. Borland A. 10. Buendia E. 12. Digne L. 20. Jimoh-Aloba J. 44. Kamara B. 5. Mings T. 52. Proctor S. (G) 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Coaches
Andrews K.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', Guessand E. 🟨,
43', 0 - 1, Elliott H. ⚽, McGinn J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Janelt V. ↓, Yarmolyuk Y. ↑,
52', Ajer K. ↓, Collins N. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Hickey A. ⚽,
67', Elliott H. ↓, Watkins O. ↑,
67', Malen D. ↓, Rogers M. ↑,
68', Milambo A. ↓, Nelson R. ↑,
68', Bogarde L. 🟨,
74', Sancho J. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
74', Bogarde L. ↓, Kamara B. ↑,
78', Ouattara Da. ↓, Damsgaard M. ↑,
78', Hickey A. ↓, Kayode M. ↑,
80', Guessand E. ↓, Jimoh-Aloba J. ↑,
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, McGinn J. (Pen),
1, Carvalho F. (Pen),
2, Watkins O. (Pen),
2, Nelson R. (Pen),
3, Buendia E. (Pen),
3, Yarmolyuk Y. (Pen),
4, Cash M. (Pen),
4, Damsgaard M. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Brentford: Gustavo Nunes (Hamstring Injury) Maghoma P. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness) Garcia A. (Knock) Kamara B. (Hamstring Injury) Onana A. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Brentford won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:23. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Brentford won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.4:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Aston Villa - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 40.27%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brentford FC
English Premier League
13.09.25	Brentford - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Sunderland - Brentford	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Nottingham Forest - Brentford	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TLWWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
13.09.25	Everton - Aston Villa	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	0:3 ✺
23.08.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Villarreal - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
23.08.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:0
08.03.25	Brentford - Aston Villa	0:1
04.12.24	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:1
06.04.24	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:3
17.12.23	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:2
Club Friendly
30.07.23	Aston Villa - Brentford	3:3
English Premier League
22.04.23	Brentford - Aston Villa	1:1

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