What is the expert prediction for Everton vs Manchester City?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Everton vs Manchester City. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Everton vs Manchester City Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Monday, May 04, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 35

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Everton		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.75	1.44
	6	4.4	1.5
	6.7	4.75	1.47
	7.1	4.9	1.47
	6.96	4.96	1.46	Watch
	6	4.5	1.44
	6.76	4.93	1.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.57 ↑ (6.16)	4.74 ↑ (4.54)	1.47 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Everton
14.6%

Draw
20.2%

Manchester City
65.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.6%

21.2%

63.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.2%

20.7%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Everton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Everton than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4%	6.1%	89.9%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -1.5 - Man City (2.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +2 - draw (4.20) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

EH -1 - Man City (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Man City (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Everton (5.88) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (89 of 98 users predict this - 90.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 85.1% – 96.54%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Everton (votes: 2 - 6.9%). Man City (votes: 27 - 93.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pickford J. (G) 15. O'Brien J. 6. Tarkowski J. (C) 5. Keane M. 16. Mykolenko V. 42. Iroegbunam T. 37. Garner J. 34. Rohl M. 22. Dewsbury-Hall K. 10. Ndiaye I. 9. Beto	25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 45. Khusanov A. 15. Guehi M. 33. O'Reilly N. 14. Nico 20. Silva B. (C) 42. Semenyo A. 10. Cherki R. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.
Substitutes
24. Alcaraz C. 45. Armstrong H. 11. Barry T. 23. Coleman S. 20. Dibling T. 19. George T. 7. McNeil D. 2. Patterson N. 12. Travers M. (G)	21. Ait-Nouri R. 6. Ake N. 47. Foden P. 8. Kovacic M. 7. Marmoush O. 4. Reijnders T. 26. Savinho 5. Stones J. 1. Trafford J. (G)
Coaches
Moyes D.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, Doku J. ⚽, Cherki R. (A),
45', Keane M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
48', Beto 🟨,
53', Tarkowski J. 🟨,
64', Beto ↓, Barry T. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Barry T. ⚽,
73', 2 - 1, O'Brien J. ⚽, Garner J. (A),
74', Donnarumma G. 🟨,
74', Semenyo A. ↓, Foden P. ↑,
75', Nico ↓, Kovacic M. ↑,
81', 3 - 1, Barry T. ⚽,
83', 3 - 2, Haaland E. ⚽, Kovacic M. (A),
86', O'Brien J. 🟨,
87', Silva B. ↓, Marmoush O. ↑,
90+2', Dewsbury-Hall K. ↓, Alcaraz C. ↑,
90+2', Rohl M. ↓, Patterson N. ↑,
90+6', Iroegbunam T. ↓, Armstrong H. ↑,
90+7', 3 - 3, Doku J. ⚽, Guehi M. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Man City is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton won 0.

Recent form of Everton has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Man City is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Everton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man City is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Everton: Branthwaite J. (Injury) Grealish J. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg)

There are questionable in Man City: Dias R. (Muscle Injury) Rodri (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Everton won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 14:43. (average 0.7:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Everton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 8:22. (average 0.8:2.2).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	77:35	42	78
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	47:50	-3	49

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester City - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 63.23%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Everton
English Premier League
25.04.26	West Ham United - Everton	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Everton - Liverpool	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Brentford - Everton	2:2 ✺
21.03.26	Everton - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Arsenal - Everton	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLTWL
- Manchester City
English FA Cup
25.04.26	Manchester City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
22.04.26	Burnley - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Manchester City - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Manchester City - Liverpool	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.10.25	Manchester City - Everton	2:0
19.04.25	Everton - Manchester City	0:2
26.12.24	Manchester City - Everton	1:1
10.02.24	Manchester City - Everton	2:0
27.12.23	Everton - Manchester City	1:3
14.05.23	Everton - Manchester City	0:3
31.12.22	Manchester City - Everton	1:1

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