Match Info

FA Cup - Final

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Wembley Stadium (London)

Referee: England D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
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Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
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Australia	Stan Sport
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Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
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France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
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Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports, HBO Max, TNT Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
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Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
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Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
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Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Sport, HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Chelsea		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.1	1.62
	4.7	3.95	1.7
	4.86	4.23	1.7
	4.74	4.22	1.72	Watch
	4.6	3.9	1.67
	4.84	4.28	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↑ (4.41)	4.11 ↑ (3.91)	1.69 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
20.2%

Draw
23.3%

Manchester City
56.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

24.3%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

24%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.3%	5.8%	76.9%

Chelsea - Manchester City Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 9 - 17.3%). Man City will win (votes: 40 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 65.4% – 88.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Chelsea (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Man City (votes: 10 - 90.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sanchez R. (G) 29. Fofana W. 6. Colwill L. 21. Hato J. 27. Gusto M. 24. James R. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 3. Cucurella M. 10. Palmer C. 8. Fernandez E. 20. Joao Pedro	1. Trafford J. (G) 27. Nunes M. 45. Khusanov A. 15. Guehi M. 33. O'Reilly N. 16. Rodri 20. Silva B. (C) 42. Semenyo A. 7. Marmoush O. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.
Substitutes
34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 23. Chalobah T. 9. Delap L. 14. Essugo D. 49. Garnacho A. 12. Jorgensen F. (G) 7. Neto P.	6. Ake N. 10. Cherki R. 3. Dias R. 25. Donnarumma G. (G) 47. Foden P. 8. Kovacic M. 4. Reijnders T. 26. Savinho 5. Stones J.
Coaches
McFarlane C.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Fernandez E. 🟨,
32', Cucurella M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Marmoush O. ↓, Cherki R. ↑,
56', Khusanov A. 🟨,
65', Rodri ↓, Kovacic M. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Semenyo A. ⚽, Haaland E. (A),
74', Cucurella M. ↓, Neto P. ↑,
83', James R. ↓, Delap L. ↑,
86', Joao Pedro ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
90+2', Caicedo M. 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Wembley Stadium.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 0.

Chelsea is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Man City is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chelsea may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man City is the team to beat.

There will not play in Chelsea: Derry J. (Concussion) Estêvão (Hamstring Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There will not play in Man City: Rodri (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Gittens J. (Muscle Injury) Sanchez R. (Concussion)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 17:36. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 1:1.9).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Manchester City: 11.16% Chelsea: 7.55%

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester City - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 54.24%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
09.05.26	Liverpool - Chelsea	1:1 ✺
04.05.26	Chelsea - Nottingham Forest	1:3 ✺
English FA Cup
26.04.26	Chelsea - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
21.04.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLWLL
- Manchester City
English Premier League
13.05.26	Manchester City - Crystal Palace	3:0 ✺
09.05.26	Manchester City - Brentford	3:0 ✺
04.05.26	Everton - Manchester City	3:3 ✺
English FA Cup
25.04.26	Manchester City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
22.04.26	Burnley - Manchester City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
12.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:3
04.01.26	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1
25.01.25	Manchester City - Chelsea	3:1
18.08.24	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:2
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Manchester City - Chelsea	4:2
English FA Cup
20.04.24	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:0
English Premier League
17.02.24	Manchester City - Chelsea	1:1

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