What is the expert prediction for Manchester City vs Arsenal?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Manchester City vs Arsenal. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Manchester City vs Arsenal Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, April 19, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 33

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Canal+, DStv Now, SuperSport Grandstand, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Premier League, Sky Sport Austria Top Event
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 1
Bangladesh	Toffee Live
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 4, CANAL+ Sport 6, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Premier League
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN, SÝN Sport
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	SCTV, Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport Uno
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, SuperSport 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 1, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Sports, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	Setanta Sports
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand, Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Suriname	QN Sports
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Futbol TV, Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC, Peacock, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	FPT Play


	Manchester City		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.7	4.2
	1.9	3.6	4.25
	1.88	3.65	4.4
	1.88	3.76	4.31	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4
	1.9	3.77	4.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.11)	3.66 ↓ (3.7)	4.28 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
51.3%

Draw
26.2%

Arsenal
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

25.9%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

27.5%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manchester City's performance.

Arsenal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arsenal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.6%	17.9%	12.5%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 109 users predict this event. Man City will win (votes: 75 - 68.8%). Arsenal will win (votes: 14 - 12.8%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 18.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 60.1% – 77.5%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Man City (1.23) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Man City (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - Man City (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Man City (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Man City (2.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Man City (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Man City (2.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 18 - 90%). Arsenal (votes: 1 - 5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 45. Khusanov A. 15. Guehi M. 33. O'Reilly N. 20. Silva B. (C) 16. Rodri 42. Semenyo A. 10. Cherki R. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.	1. Raya D. (G) 3. Mosquera C. 2. Saliba W. 6. Gabriel 5. Hincapie P. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 36. Zubimendi M. 41. Rice D. 20. Madueke N. 29. Havertz K. 10. Eze E.
Substitutes
21. Ait-Nouri R. 6. Ake N. 47. Foden P. 7. Marmoush O. 14. Nico 4. Reijnders T. 26. Savinho 5. Stones J. 1. Trafford J. (G)	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 56. Dowman M. 9. Gabriel Jesus 14. Gyökeres V. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 11. Martinelli G. 16. Norgaard C. 19. Trossard L. 4. White B.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Cherki R. ⚽, Nunes M. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Havertz K. ⚽,
36', Mosquera C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Madueke N. ↓, Martinelli G. ↑,
60', Guehi M. 🟨,
65', 2 - 1, Haaland E. ⚽,
74', Eze E. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
74', Mosquera C. ↓, White B. ↑,
83', Gabriel 🟨,
83', Haaland E. 🟨,
84', Guardiola P. 🟨,
84', Zubimendi M. ↓, Gyökeres V. ↑,
85', Cherki R. ↓, Foden P. ↑,
88', Doku J. ↓, Savinho ↑,
88', Rodri ↓, Nico ↑,
90+6', Semenyo A. ↓, Ake N. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 1.

Man City is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arsenal is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Man City is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Dias R. (Muscle Injury) Gvardiol J. (Broken Leg) Stones J. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Arsenal: Merino M. (Foot Injury) Saka B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Calafiori R. (Knock) Madueke N. (Injury) Odegaard M. (Muscle Injury) Timber J. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man City won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 39:18. (average 2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:6. (average 2.2:0.7).

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Outrights of English Premier League for now

Arsenal: 49.8% Manchester City: 49.25%

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Arsenal ✔	34	22	7	5	64:26	38	73
2	Manchester City ✔	33	21	7	5	66:29	37	70

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English Premier League
12.04.26	Chelsea - Manchester City	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Manchester City - Liverpool	4:0 ✺
English League Cup
22.03.26	Arsenal - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.03.26	Manchester City - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
14.03.26	West Ham United - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWLT
- Arsenal FC
UEFA Champions League
15.04.26	Arsenal - Sporting Lisbon	0:0 ✺
English Premier League
11.04.26	Arsenal - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Arsenal	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
04.04.26	Southampton - Arsenal	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
22.03.26	Arsenal - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
22.03.26	Arsenal - Manchester City	0:2
English Premier League
21.09.25	Arsenal - Manchester City	1:1
02.02.25	Arsenal - Manchester City	5:1
22.09.24	Manchester City - Arsenal	2:2
31.03.24	Manchester City - Arsenal	0:0
08.10.23	Arsenal - Manchester City	1:0
English FA Community Shield
06.08.23	Manchester City - Arsenal	1:2 penalties

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