Match Info

NETHERLANDS: Eerste Divisie - Round 11

Date: 18 October 2024, Friday

Location: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion (Rotterdam)

Referee: Kamphuis J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 4


	Excelsior		MVV Maastricht

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.75	6.25
	1.43	4.6	5.75
	1.44	5	6	Watch
	1.46	4.99	6.23
	1.47	4.68	5.77
	1.4	4.6	5.8
	1.44	4.9	5.99	Watch
	1.44	5	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.47)	4.82 ↑ (4.4)	5.97 ↓ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excelsior
64.9%

Draw
19.4%

MVV Maastricht
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

21.2%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

20.3%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excelsior has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

MVV Maastricht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Excelsior than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for MVV Maastricht than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Excelsior - MVV Maastricht Predictions

Users Predictions: Excelsior will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raatsie C. (G) 33. Bergraaf J. 4. Warmerdam D. 2. Bronkhorst I. 3. Pierie K. 20. Hartjes L. 15. Naujoks N. 18. Loeffen S. 7. Fini S. 11. Booth Z. 21. Donkor J.	12. Matthys R. (G) 3. Aktas O. 4. Coomans W. 16. Librici A. 34. Schenk L. 31. Kleinen M. 6. El Basri N. 17. Kassimi A. 29. Silva Timas I. 5. Smeets B. 7. Camil Mmaee
Substitutes
31. Cairo G. 22. de Almeida Reis J. 32. de Moes S. 24. Eijgenraam J. 38. Kuiper P. (G) 28. Middendorp S. 30. Sanches Fernandes D. 34. Seymor S. 29. van Duinen M.	9. Braken S. 11. Buifrahi R. 21. Esajas R. 20. Francis S. 1. Lambrix T. (G) 23. Op De Beeck J. (G) 14. Penders S. 24. Sangen M. 10. Slegers F. 25. Tehubijuluw D.
Coaches
den Uil R.	Hermans E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Silva Timas I. ⚽, Librici A. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Fini S. ⚽, Hartjes L. (A),
42', 1 - 2, Loeffen S. (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Donkor J. ↓, Sanches Fernandes D. ↑,
46', Pierie K. ↓, Seymor S. ↑,
66', Bronkhorst I. ↓, Eijgenraam J. ↑,
66', Camil Mmaee ↓, Braken S. ↑,
66', Kassimi A. ↓, Esajas R. ↑,
68', Smeets B. ↓, Slegers F. ↑,
69', Naujoks N. 🟨,
74', Loeffen S. ↓, van Duinen M. ↑,
78', Silva Timas I. ↓, Francis S. ↑,
81', Seymor S. 🟨,
87', 2 - 2, van Duinen M. (Pen),
90+2', 3 - 2, Bergraaf J. ⚽,
90+7', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Excelsior won 3.

Excelsior is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Maastricht is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Excelsior could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Excelsior is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Excelsior: Duijvestijn L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Excelsior: Pierie K. (Foot Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Excelsior won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 20:13 (average 1.7:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Excelsior won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13:5 (average 2.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Excelsior Rotterdam
Dutch Eerste Divisie
04.10.24	Roda - Excelsior	3:0 ✺
27.09.24	Excelsior - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:2 ✺
20.09.24	Dordrecht - Excelsior	2:2 ✺
16.09.24	Excelsior - VVV-Venlo	4:0 ✺
13.09.24	Excelsior - Telstar	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWTWW
- MVV Maastricht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
13.10.24	MVV Maastricht - VVV-Venlo	2:0 ✺
04.10.24	Emmen - MVV Maastricht	1:1 ✺
27.09.24	MVV Maastricht - FC Oss	2:2 ✺
21.09.24	Roda - MVV Maastricht	1:0 ✺
13.09.24	MVV Maastricht - Volendam	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch KNVB Beker
19.10.22	Excelsior - MVV Maastricht	5:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
15.04.22	MVV Maastricht - Excelsior	1:1
10.12.21	Excelsior - MVV Maastricht	2:1
20.02.21	MVV Maastricht - Excelsior	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.01.21	MVV Maastricht - Excelsior	2:3 penalties
Dutch Eerste Divisie
16.10.20	Excelsior - MVV Maastricht	2:0
06.03.20	Excelsior - MVV Maastricht	3:0

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